New US assessments suggest Tehran believes it better understands its military strengths, the limits of American pressure and the leverage provided by the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears the conflict could drag on or escalate further.
Iran has emerged from six months of intermittent war with the United States more confident in its ability to inflict damage across the Middle East and increasingly convinced that it can sustain the conflict for months, according to recent U.S. intelligence assessments cited by The New York Times. Officials familiar with the reports say Tehran now has a clearer understanding of both its own military capabilities and the limits of American power. That confidence is feeding concerns in Washington that Iran’s leadership may be prepared to escalate after weeks of renewed fighting.
The shift has become visible on the ground. Over the past week, Iran has targeted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and American forces in the region, while the United States has carried out strikes inside Iran that killed military personnel and civilians. The latest exchanges have remained relatively limited. But officials who reviewed the intelligence said the assessments indicate that Iran’s hard-line leadership may be considering a broader confrontation. The reports also suggest that a comprehensive agreement ending the war remains difficult to imagine. U.S. officials see little indication that Tehran is preparing to make major concessions, while some believe Iran is content to prolong the confrontation and deepen President Donald Trump’s political problems ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
Trump is not currently pursuing negotiations. Instead, he has argued that economic pressure will eventually force Iran to make concessions over the Strait of Hormuz and perhaps, later, its nuclear program. In the short term, however, officials who reviewed the intelligence believe additional sanctions could have the opposite effect and prompt further Iranian escalation. (Read More)
