Fog of war: Eight signs that Iran-US-Israel conflict is not over despite Trump's five-day pause announcement

Despite Trump's temporary pause announcement, the Iran war tensions remain high with ongoing strikes and military build-ups. The disruption of Strait of Hormuz oil routes is not over, signalling continued instability and no clear path to de-escalation. Why it's not over till it's over.

Is the Iran war over? There are many conflicting reports on the status of the ongoing US–Israel–Iran conflict, hours after US President Donald Trump on Monday (Mar 23) announced a five-day pause on attacks on Iranian energy and power infrastructure. There is widespread scepticism about the war ending any time soon, as attacks and counterattacks continue, and little has changed regarding the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Here are eight reasons the war is far from over: 

  

1. US Marines continue to reach CENTCOM for Middle East deployment

2. Iran, US and Israel continue air strikes and missile attacks

3. Strait of Hormuz situation remains unchanged

4. No confirmation from Iran on negotiations or talks, as Arab nations remain sceptical

5. Brent crude oil prices remain volatile and above $100 per barrel

6. Only speculative reporting on diplomatic negotiations

7. Gulf states reassessing their strategic posture

8. Core geopolitical issues remain unresolved

Perspective: It is not over till...but who will have to sing to end the Iran - US - Israel war?

In summary, the US–Israel–Iran conflict has not ended. Despite the announcement of a temporary pause, ongoing military operations, unresolved disputes, disruption of energy markets, and the absence of verified diplomatic progress point towards an uneasy calm at best, and a highly volatile situation that could lead to another flare-up, at worst. Trump's five-day pause appears to be a tactical move rather than a definitive step towards peace, with the risk of further escalation still firmly present. (Ed note: Interesting thoughts from WION.) (Read More)

Trump: 'If talks don't go well, we'll keep bombing our little hearts out'

US President says Iran needs 'better PR people' after the Iranian foreign ministry denies his statement that productive talks between the US and Iran were held recently. US President Donald Trump dismissed the denials from Iran's Foreign Ministry of his statement that the US and Iran had held "very good and productive" talks on ending the current conflict in recent days, remarking that Iran needed "better public relations people."

"We have had very, very strong talks. We'll see where they lead. We have major points of agreement," Trump told Fox News, saying that the talks were conducted by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. "They went, I would say, perfectly. I would say that if they carry through with that, it'll end that problem, that conflict." He added: "We're dealing with the man who, I believe, is the most respected and the 'leader.' It's a little tough - we've wiped out everybody." When asked if that 'leader' is the new Supreme Leader of Iran, Motjaba Khamenei, Trump replied: "No." Trump stated that if the talks "go well," the war could end within a week. "Otherwise, we'll just keep bombing our little hearts out."

Earlier on Monday, Trump announced on his Truth Social platform: "I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST."

"BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!"

The announcement appeared to backtrack on Trump's previous ultimatum on Saturday demanding that Iran open the Straight of Hormuz within 48 hours. (Source)

Iran denies engaging in talks with US after Trump claims Kushner, Witkoff held meeting

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei denied on Monday that any talks with the United States had taken place, contradicting US President Donald Trump's earlier statements that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had met with Iranian officials on Sunday. "We have had very, very strong talks. We'll see where they lead. We have points, major points of agreement, I would say, almost all points of agreement... we've had very strong talks, Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner had them," Trump said.

In a statement to Iranian media, Baghaei said that although some friendly nations had sent messages indicating that the United States had requested talks, Iran did not respond. Baghaei additionally noted that the regime's conditions for an end to the war, as well as Iran's stance on the Strait of Hormuz, remain unchanged.

An unidentified Iranian senior official told Reuters on Monday that the US had specifically requested a meeting with Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, but Iran's Supreme National Security Council has yet to review the matter. A source told The Jerusalem Post on Monday that Ghalibaf is leading the talks with the US, while the Parliament Speaker stated in a post on X/Twitter that no talks had taken place and further stated that "fake news" is being used to manipulate financial and oil markets. (Read More)

IAF drops over 100 bombs on regime headquarters in Tehran

In widescale wave of strikes, IDF targeted several Iranian regime security organization headquarters and bases, as well as key weapons manufacturing sites.

The IDF continues to further degrade the Iranian regime's military systems and capabilities. Dozens of IAF fighter jets, acting on IDF intelligence, completed a wide-scale wave of strikes on the Iranian regime's infrastructure in the area of Tehran. During the strikes, the IDF targeted several Iranian regime security organization headquarters and bases, as well as key weapons manufacturing sites. Over one hundred munitions were used in the strikes. Sites included:

* A Quds Force base used as a command post for coordinating and overseeing IRGC intelligence and operational activity

* An IRGC aerial defense headquarters

* An IRGC Ground Forces headquarters. This site was established in a large military compound in the heart of Tehran. Several headquarters in the compound were struck before.

* A Quds Force intelligence headquarters

* An Iranian Ministry of Defense naval cruise missile manufacturing site

* Additional manufacturing sites and research facilities related to electronics, ballistic missiles, and warheads.       (Source)

Chances of US-Iran deal 'very small,' Israeli officials tell 'Post'

An American source told the Post that “the strikes are continuing as planned," and Israeli officials also said there has been no change in coordination with the US military or in operational plans.

The chances of an agreement between the United States and Iran are “very small,” Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. The gap stems not only from US demands - including restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz - but also from Iranian demands. “At the moment, the Iranians are insisting on American compensation, as well as guarantees from the administration that there will be no further action against Iran as part of any agreement,” two sources involved in mediation efforts told the Post.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s statements about progress in talks, a source familiar with the details said the deployment of American forces in the Middle East is continuing as usual. The additional forces include US Marines intended to enable a potential takeover of Iran’s Kharg oil island in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has not yet decided whether to launch a ground operation to seize the island, which could help ensure freedom of navigation. The decision depends in part on ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

On Sunday, the Post reported that senior American officials told Israeli counterparts that “there will probably be no choice but to carry out a ground operation on Kharg Island.” The amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and the amphibious transport dock USS New Orleans, carrying about 2,500 Marines, are expected to arrive in the region this weekend as part of the first Marine reinforcement in the Middle East.

In addition, an Amphibious Ready Group led by the assault ship USS Boxer is also on its way to the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility, which includes Iran. The group includes the escort ships Portland and Comstock and carries additional aircraft, including F-35B stealth fighter jets, Super Cobra attack helicopters, and MV-22 Osprey aircraft, along with approximately 4,500 sailors and Marines. The US Army is also considering deploying the 82nd Airborne Division to the region. The division can deploy about 3,000 troops anywhere in the world within 18 hours, and did so within 10 hours in 2020. (Read More)

Minister Smotrich: Our border with Lebanon must be the Litani River

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said the war must end with the Litani River as Israel’s new border, alongside a buffer zone in Lebanon.

Finance Minister and Religious Zionist Party chairman Bezalel Smotrich spoke about the ongoing war during his faction's meeting and stated that the border with Lebanon must change. "The State of Israel and the IDF, in collaboration with our American partners, continue to crush the enemy. The war has costs, but every day of fighting we eliminate, destroy, and weaken the axis of evil until it falls with G-d's help. Every day of fighting ensures us years of security," Smotrich opened.

He noted that "in Lebanon as well, the IDF continues to advance, broaden the buffer zone and defend the residents of the north. On this front too, alongside the great achievements, there are also prices - for business, with the disruption of daily life. Unfortunately, there are also casualties, including Benaya, my son, who, thank G-d, survived by a miracle and is recovering."

The Minister recounted, "Last week, I was in the north with local leaders from the confrontation line, and said to them: 'Every time there is a boom from gunfire, remember, together with the hardship, that those are our artillery and planes who are hitting the enemy and ensuring the security of the north for many years.' I also visited businesses and the heroic farmers on the border and told them: Last time we had to evacuate you, today we are evacuating the residents of southern Lebanon. We are rehabilitating and developing our northern communities, and destroying the terrorist villages in Lebanon."

The Finance Minister declared that "the current campaign in Lebanon must end with a fundamental change of state: the Litani (River) must be our new border with the State of Lebanon, just like the yellow line in Gaza and the peak of Mount Hermon in Syria. We can not return to the October 6th reality where the enemy sits at our gates. We will distance it on all fronts, and we will create a sterile security zone that will cut between the enemy and our citizens." (Ed note: It is interesting to note that the Litani River is about 18 miles north of the border of Israel, and the city of TYRE is about 12 miles from the border of Israel. That will make the city of TYRE a city within the country of Israel.) (Read More)

As Trump steers away from war with Iran, Israel rediscovers cost of riding with him

For third time in a year, the president wants to cut a deal that ends fighting before Israel is ready. Now Netanyahu has to make sure regime truly cannot get to the bomb, and that Hezbollah doesn’t get off the hook as well.

The White House has repeatedly sounded a simple but effective message: Trust the plan. The slogan — with ostensible origins in the QAnon conspiracy theory movement — has been applied to a range of issues. In January, the Labor Department posted a photo of US President Donald Trump saluting, with the caption Trust the Plan. Trust Trump. After prominent antisemitic podcaster Tucker Carlson visited the Oval Office in January, a White House official told Jewish activist Shabbos Kestenbaum, “Just trust the plan.”

It was also the approach that Israelis took toward the president on most issues. Trump and his advisers — especially top envoy Steve Witkoff — might occasionally have said things that confused Israel and even undermined its interests, but they trusted that he was a president who could distinguish good from evil, and was not about to be pushed around by Iran and friends.

Trump’s decision to unleash an all-out bombing campaign against Iran alongside Israel seemed to confirm the wisdom of putting trust in the US leader. Sure, Trump might have engaged in direct talks with Iran, but, they reasoned, he saw right through their attempts to prevaricate and delay and embarked on a war that could damage him politically because he knew it was right. Trust the Plan.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu certainly acts like he fully trusts Trump. In a press conference last week, he lauded “the wisdom and the courage of President Trump’s decision, and his leadership, and the fact that we’re working together.”“America is not fighting for Israel. America is fighting with Israel for a common goal: to protect our future, to protect civilization against these barbarians,” Netanyahu said. They might not be fighting together for long. (Read More)

Israel will protect its interests if US, Iran engage in peace talks, Netanyahu says

US President Donald Trump believes Israel and the US can reach a joint agreement with Iran that protects Israel's interests, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on Monday. "We will safeguard our vital interests under all circumstances," Netanayhu affirmed. The prime minister confirmed that Israel will continue to strike both Iran and Hezbollah until a deal is reached.

"We are continuing to strike in both Iran and Lebanon. We are smashing the missile program and the nuclear program, and we continue to deal severe blows to Hezbollah. Just a few days ago, we eliminated two more nuclear scientists – and we are still active." On Monday, Trump claimed that the US and Iran have had “very good and productive” discussions over the last two days regarding a permanent end to the war.

“Israel will protect its interests if US, Iran engage in peace talks, Netanyahu says The prime minister confirmed that Israel will continue to strike both Iran and Hezbollah until a deal is reached. I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. An Iranian source later denied that the US and Iran were holding talks about ending the war. "There is no direct contact with Trump, not even through intermediaries. Trump retreated after hearing that our targets would be all power plants in West Asia," the unnamed source told the Iranian state-affiliated Fars News Agency. (Source)

Mossad is calling senior Iranian commanders and pressuring them to stand aside

Hundreds of phone calls are being made by Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, along with targeted assassinations of top regime leaders.  

“Hello, how are you? Is this Commander Fathi Zadeh?” the Israeli Mossad agent asks at the start of the phone call. “Who are you? Hello?” the senior Iranian police officer responds. “Are you listening?” the Israeli intelligence agent continues in Farsi. “We know everything about you, you are on our blacklist, and we have all the information about you.” “OK,” the Iranian officer, identified as Mohsen Fathi Zadeh, head of the Protection and Intelligence Organization of the Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) of Iran, replies in the recording.

The Israeli agent continues: “Your daughter’s name is Zahara, and your wife’s name is Jahanbachsh, your mother’s name is Nadia, and your father’s name is Husain. I called to warn you in advance that you should stand with your people’s side. And if you will not do that, your destiny will be as your leader’s [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]. Is that clear? “Brother,” the Iranian commander responds, “I swear on the Quran I’m not your enemy, I’m a dead man already; just please come help us and cut off the head of all of the commanders.” The call, a recording of which was sent to JNS by Israeli intelligence sources, was one of hundreds that Israeli Mossad agents made to senior Iranian security officials since the outbreak of the war on Feb. 28, in an effort to weaken the regime and its supporters.

The calls are coupled with the targeted killings of top Iranian leaders, from Khamenei, who was slain in an Israeli airstrike on the first day of the war, followed by, among others, Iran’s top security official and the head of the feared Basij militia. “This reveals the extent of the Israeli penetration into the Iranian governmental system,” IDF Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, an intelligence and security expert, told JNS on Sunday. “It is part and parcel of Israel’s goal to weaken the Iranian regime to create the condition for the Iranian people to change it.”

He noted that the psychological warfare Israel was using in Iran, coupled with targeted assassinations, was similar to the tactics the IDF used against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran’s proxies, only now at a distance of about a thousand miles away. “There is no doubt that this is weakening the regime, but it is too early to say if this will do the job,” Kuperwasser said. “It is hard to determine at what point the regime is so weak that the people will rise up against it. Time will tell.” Over the last three weeks, Israel has been hunting down Iranian regime members, one by one, and taking out their supporters on the streets of Iran. (Ed note: And the Mossad includes in their call, "If you act now, we will send you, free of charge, one of our latest daily pagers for your convenience in these busy times."Wow, the Mossad is good!) (Read More)

Trump Shocks Us (again): U.S. Forces Will Enter Iran to Seize All Enriched Uranium, Even Under a Full Deal

Trump has said a lot of wild things lately, but this one really takes the cake.   

President Donald Trump made it crystal clear today: any nuclear deal with Iranwill require American teams to physically enter the country and remove every kilogram of enriched uranium themselves. In his live Fox Business interview with Maria Bartiromo, the same explosive segment where he said Iran “really wants to make a deal… badly” and that an agreement “could happen within the next five days - or sooner,” Trump was asked the direct question: “How are you going to get the enriched uranium?” His answer was blunt and unmistakable:    

“It’s very easy. If we have a deal with them, we’re going down and we’ll take it ourselves.”    Trump explained the move is non-negotiable because Iran’s stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium are buried deep underground in fortified sites. Air strikes alone cannot guarantee complete destruction, and he refuses to trust Tehran to hand it over or destroy it themselves.    

Trump explained the move is non-negotiable because Iran’s stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium are buried deep underground in fortified sites. Air strikes alone cannot guarantee complete destruction, and he refuses to trust Tehran to hand it over or destroy it themselves. He then laid out his full list of ironclad demands for any agreement:   

1. No nuclear bomb: “no nuclear weapon, not even close to it.” 
2. Low key on missiles: dramatic scaling back of Iran’s ballistic missile program. 
3. Peace in the Middle East. 
4. Zero enrichment: “We want the nuclear dust. No enrichment.” 
5. Complete removal: “We want the enriched uranium.”    

Trump added: “If this happens, it’s a great start for Iran to build itself back. And it’s everything that we want. And it’s also great for Israel and it’s great for the other Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, all of them, Kuwait and Bahrain in particular.”  (Read More)

The Art of the "Strategic Climbdown" — Why Trump Just Blinked on Tehran

Opinion: Why Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum was a tactical trap and how he used "productive talks" as a strategic exit. While the energy grid is safe for now, the bombs are still falling on Tehran. For forty-eight hours, the world held its breath. The ultimatum was classic Trump: "Open the Strait of Hormuz, or I turn off the lights in Iran." It was bold, it was cinematic, and according to seasoned diplomatic correspondent Ariel Kahana of Israel Hayom, it was a tactical dead end that the President has now expertly abandoned. 

 
The "Tree" Trump Had to Climb Down From

In the world of high-stakes gambling, you don’t bluff with a hand that burns down your own house. Trump’s threat to dismantle the Iranian electrical grid was exactly that. While the "Roaring Lion" campaign has successfully degraded the IRGC’s hardware, a total collapse of the Iranian energy sector would have sent global oil markets into a tailspin—harming American allies and global stability far more than it would have hurt a self-sufficient U.S. energy market. 

As Kahana noted, Trump "climbed down from the tree" because he realized the 48-hour clock wasn't serving him. It was a self-imposed trap. By announcing "productive talks" and a five-day pause, Trump didn't just delay a strike; he gave himself a diplomatic "ladder" to walk back a threat that could have triggered a global depression. 

 
The Pahlavi Factor and the "Humanitarian" Out 

 
Every good deal needs a face-saving exit. Enter Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah. His public plea—urging the U.S. not to punish the Iranian people by destroying their civilian infrastructure—provided Trump with the perfect pivot. It allowed the President to shift from "The Destroyer" to "The Negotiator," appearing to listen to the voices of the Iranian people while maintaining a position of strength.

The Bottom Line 

  

Is this the beginning of the end of the war, as some analysts suggest? Or is it simply a tactical reload? In the Middle East, the "clouds of arrogance" often obscure the truth, but one thing is clear: the 48-hour clock has stopped, but the 120-hour window for Iran’s survival has just begun. (Ed note: An excellent opinion and analysis from Jfeed.) (Source)

Trump pauses strikes on energy sites after talks with Tehran

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday ordered a five-day pause on military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure following what he said were “very good and productive” talks with Tehran. Trump in a post on his Truth Social platform said he had instructed the Department of Defense to postpone “any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure” while negotiations continue this week, adding that the freeze is contingent on “the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.” The recent talks were “in depth, detailed, and constructive,” he wrote, suggesting they could lead to a “complete and total resolution” of the conflict with the Islamic regime.

Earlier on Monday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned in a statement reported by Iranian state media that if the country’s electricity sector is attacked, it will target Israel’s power plants as well as those of other countries in the region. “We are determined to ⁠respond to any threat at the same level as it creates in terms ⁠of deterrence. ... If you hit electricity, we hit electricity,” Reuters cited the IRGC as saying. Trump late on Saturday evening U.S. Eastern time issued an ultimatum to Tehran, saying that if it did not open the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within 48 hours, Iran’s energy infrastructure would be destroyed. According to The New York Times, the Islamic Republic vowed to keep the Strait “completely closed” if its vital energy sources were stuck.

Power outages were reported by residents in large parts in Tehran on Monday morning after a wave of air raids struck targets across the city the previous night, the Times reported. The Israel Defense Forces stated in the early morning hours of Monday that it had launched a large wave of airstrikes against infrastructure of the “Iranian terrorist regime in Tehran.” It did not specify which sites were targeted.  (Ed note: So what about the Strait of Hormuz, or is Trump again just being played?)  (Source)

Russia warns US-Israeli strikes near Bushehr nuclear plant are extremely dangerous

US-Israeli strikes near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran are extremely dangerous, and Russia has shared its concerns with the United States, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday. Such strikes could have irreparable consequences, Peskov said. "We believe that strikes on nuclear facilities are potentially extremely dangerous. (...) Therefore, the Russian side, taking an extremely responsible stance on this issue, has repeatedly voiced its concerns," Peskov said.

The Kremlin spokesman said that the conflict in Iran, "as recently as yesterday," should have been channeled towards a political and diplomatic settlement"This is the only thing that can effectively help defuse the catastrophically tense situation that has now developed in the region." On 17 March, the Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom said that a strike was carried out "on the territory adjacent to the building of the metrological service, located on the site of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, in close proximity to the operating power unit." Russia condemned a strike on the territory of the plant and called for de-escalation around the facility. (Source)

Israel blows up bridge allegedly used by Hezbollah to move troops into south Lebanon

The Israeli Air Force blew up a bridge over Lebanon’s Litani River on Sunday, accusing Hezbollah of using it to move operatives and weapons into the country’s south, as Israel warned that its fight against the Iran-backed terror group had “only just begun.” The strike on the Litani’s Qasmiya Bridge was met with anger from Beirut, which warned that the step was a “dangerous escalation” and demanded that the international community intervene to deter Israel from expanding its operations in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces said a Hezbollah drone impacted near Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, lightly wounding a soldier. Another four troops were lightly wounded in a safety-related incident during operations in southern Lebanon later Sunday, while two others were lightly wounded in a “work accident” in northern Israel, the IDF said, adding that all seven troops were hospitalized in good condition with their families notified.

Israel has carried out massive airstrikes in Lebanon and pushed troops farther into the country after Hezbollah renewed its rocket attacks on Israel on March 2 amid the bombing campaign that the US and Israel launched in Iran on February 28. The Qasmiya Bridge was the fifth to be targeted by Israel since March 2. The IDF had warned earlier on Sunday that it intended to bomb the river crossing, located along Lebanon’s coastal highway just north of Tyre, to prevent Hezbollah from moving operatives and weapons into southern Lebanon. (Read More)

US considers ground operation to seize Iran’s Kharg Island amid tensions, source tells Post

Senior US officials have informed their counterparts in Israel and other nations in recent days that it appears there may be no alternative but for the United States to launch a ground military operation to seize the Iranian island of Kharg, two sources familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post.

Located in the Persian Gulf, Kharg Island serves as Iran’s primary hub for oil exports, with 90% of its crude oil destined for China. In recent days, discussions have begun within the US administration regarding whether to occupy the island to compel Iran to stop blocking vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. A US official confirmed to the Post that “the US military has accelerated the deployment of thousands of Marinesand Navy personnel to the Middle East.”

This deployment includes the USS Boxer Amphibious Readiness Group, featuring the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer – which functions as a light aircraft carrier – alongside the amphibious transport docks USS Portland and USS Comstock. These three vessels carry approximately 4,500 Marines and additional combat personnel.

About a week and a half ago, the US struck military targets on Kharg Island, after which US President Donald Trump tweeted: “We have destroyed all military targets on the island.” The president added that he had decided not to dismantle the island’s entire oil infrastructure at that time but warned, “If Iran thwarts movement in the Strait of Hormuz, I will reconsider.” (Read More)

The Kharg Gambit: How 4,700 U.S. Marines Can Beat Iran

As the USS Tripoli and USS Boxer converge on the Gulf, the mission is clear: Seize Kharg Island. Here's why "vertical insertion" is the only way to bypass Iran’s minefields and how 4,700 Marines have become the ultimate bargaining chip in the 2026 conflict. As the 48-hour ultimatum issued by President Trump looms over the Middle East, analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera says that the strategic focus of the 2026 Iran War has shifted to a singular, rocky outpost: Kharg Island.

Nearly 5,000 U.S. Marines are currently converging on the region, signaling that the "decider" of this conflict will not be a Tomahawk missile, but combat boots on Iranian soil. The scale of the deployment is staggering. The USS Tripoli, an America-class amphibious assault ship, transited the Malacca Strait on March 17. It carries 2,200 Marines from the 31st MEU, backed by F-35B stealth fighters and MV-22 Ospreys. Joining them is the USS Boxer, carrying another 2,500 Marines from the 11th MEU, which departed San Diego under accelerated orders on March 18.

Unlike previous carrier strikes, this fleet is not designed to flatten infrastructure. It is designed to seize and hold it. Kharg Island is the jugular vein of the Iranian economy, handling 90 percent of the country’s oil exports. While Israeli and U.S. strikes have systematically dismantled Iranian military sites, the oil terminals on Kharg have been "deliberately spared." The strategic logic is clear: You do not destroy the leverage; you occupy it. By placing Marines on Kharg, the U.S. moves the "bargaining chip" from a diplomatic cable to the physical ground. The message to Tehran is simple: Reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or lose your national revenue permanently. (Read More)

Gulf states opposed war with Iran. Most are now pushing to keep the fight going

WASHINGTON — While Gulf countries cautioned US President Donald Trump not to launch a war against Iran in the runup to the conflict, most of them are now urging Washington to continue striking the regime, four senior officials representing different Gulf capitals told The Times of Israel. There is still some frustration with the way the US and Israel are prosecuting the war, but there is a desire among Gulf countries — particularly the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar — to ensure that Iran comes out of this war with its military power sufficiently degraded to cease posing a threat to them, said the four senior officials, speaking to The Times of Israel last week on condition of anonymity.

While Trump has repeatedly expressed surprise over Iran’s decision to retaliate against its neighbors, including by targeting civilian sites, one of the officials said that Gulf countries largely anticipated the response and that this was one of the reasons they opposed the US-Israeli launch of the war. “There was also serious doubt that [military strikes] would have the desired effect of ending Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region,” the senior Gulf diplomat said, explaining that the consensus in the region had been that continued pursuit of a diplomatic off-ramp was a surer way to maintain security in the Gulf.

But the US and Israel spurned that view, launching operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, respectively, on the grounds that only preemptive military action could address Iran’s nuclear aspirations and its rapidly expanding ballistic missile capabilities. Iran responded by not only targeting those attacking it, but also by launching repeated strikes against all six Gulf Cooperation Council countries — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The attacks have killed several people and disrupted oil and gas production as well as tourism, both of which are important economic lifelines for the region. (Read More)

Can Iran’s power grid be knocked out?

A warning by US President Donald Trump that Iran’s power plants could be targeted if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue has drawn attention to a key question: how vulnerable is Iran’s electricity network? The short answer is that Iran’s power system is large, heavily dependent on thermal generation, and widely dispersed – making it difficult to disable through limited military strikes.

A system built on thermal power

According to Iran’s Ministry of Energy, the country has around 40.6 million electricity subscribers, including 32.3 million residential users. Although official figures put hydroelectric power at 13.4% of capacity, the actual share is less than 5%, largely due to reservoir conditions. Instead, Iran relies overwhelmingly on thermal power plants, which generate more than 95% of its electricity. There are about 130 thermal plants across the country, with a combined capacity of 78,000 megawatts. Among them, around 20 plants exceed 1,000 megawatts, and three exceed 2,000 megawatts.

Where the power is generated

The largest facility is the Damavand power plant, with a capacity of about 2,900 megawatts. Also known as the Pakdasht plant, it covers roughly 200 hectares and is located 50 kilometers southeast of Tehran on the Khavaran road. Its construction cost was close to 2 billion euros. The Neka (Behshahr) power plant, also around 200 hectares, is located along the Caspian Sea Mazandaran province and has a capacity of about 2,200 megawatts.

The Rajaei power plant, along the Karaj-Qazvin road, produces around 2,000 megawatts and spans about 350 hectares. Around Tehran, five major plants – Damavand, Rajaei, Montazer Ghaem, Roudshour (Rudshur), and Mofatteh – play a central role in supplying electricity. Within the capital itself, smaller plants – Besat, Rey, Tarasht, and Parand – operate at much lower capacity. The largest among them, Parand, produces about 950 megawatts, while Besat generates around 250 megawatts and Tarasht only 50 megawatts.

Hard targets, limited impact

Iran’s electricity system is not concentrated in a few locations. Its transmission and sub-transmission network extends about 133,000 kilometers, and when urban and rural lines are included, the total exceeds 1.3 million kilometers. The system is supported by 857,000 transformers and an estimated 2,000 to 5,000 large and medium substations across the country. Strikes on substations could cause temporary, localized outages, but they can be replaced relatively quickly.

For example, after blue flashes were seen in the skies over western Tehran and Karaj – likely caused by explosions at power substations – electricity in western Tehran was cut temporarily before being restored.  (Ed note: This article, taken from Iran International, gives us interesting insight.)   (Read More)

Iran using ‘satellite-like’ launches to double missile range, ex-IDF air defense chief warns

Iran’s launch of a ballistic missile over a distance of around 4,000 km., shattering the 2,000 km. range that much of the world hoped it would stay under, likely involved a two-stage satellite-like launch process, former IDF air defense chief Brig.-Gen. Ran Kochav told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday. Kochav said that the launch had “doubled the demonstrated capability overnight” of what Iran could do when it targeted the joint UK-US base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

Echoing IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir’s statement on Saturday night that the additional distance probably stemmed from a launch vehicle that used multiple stages, Kochav noted that Iran has been working on such two-stage launch technologies for years to try to launch satellites into space. Both Israel and the US have warned that Iranian satellite tests could turn out to have dual-use elements, leading to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), both conventional and nuclear. While the Islamic Republic has long denied this possibility, Saturday’s launch has likely exposed a clandestine program it has operated for years for precisely such purposes.

Discussing different scenarios, Kochav, who was later also the IDF’s chief spokesman, said that it was possible that the kind of missile used might be a modified USSR-era R-27 ballistic missile. The R-27 was mainly fired by the USSR from submarines and potentially had nuclearcapabilities, but Iran could have modified it to launch from a land-based platform. (Read More)

BREAKING: Trump Issues 48-Hour Ultimatum to Iran - 'Open the Strait or Lose Your Power Plants'

Trump Vows to ‘Obliterate’ Iranian Energy Infrastructure as 48-Hour Deadline Looms Over Strait of Hormuz Blockade.

President Donald Trump has just escalated the high-stakes showdown in the Middle East, issuing a blunt 48-hour ultimatum to the Iranian regime: Fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the "obliteration" of the country's power grid. In a characteristically fiery post on Truth Social Saturday evening, the President didn't mince words about the consequences of continued maritime disruption in the world’s most critical energy chokepoint.

"If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!" — President Donald J. Trump. The post, timestamped at approximately 7:44 PM ET, sets a deadline for late Monday. It marks a dramatic shift in strategy; until now, the U.S. had reportedly avoided targeting Iran’s civilian power infrastructure to minimize the long-term impact on the population. That "restraint," it seems, has expired.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, has been effectively paralyzed since early March. The closure has sent global oil prices skyrocketing past $112 a barrel, causing economic tremors from Washington to Tokyo. While the Trump administration recently moved to ease some sanctions on "stranded" Iranian oil to soothe the markets, this latest move suggests the President is losing patience with Tehran. The current war, which began with massive US-Israeli strikes on February 28, has already decimated much of Iran's military capabilities. Reports indicate that Iran’s ballistic missile and drone production is estimated to be down by over 90%.

By threatening the "biggest one first," Trump is likely pointing to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant or the massive Damavand combined-cycle plant. Taking out the power grid would essentially "turn the lights out" on what remains of the Iranian government’s command and control. As the 48-hour countdown begins, the world is watching the Persian Gulf. Will Tehran blink and allow the tankers to move, or is the Middle East about to go dark?  (Read More)

Trump threatens to 'obliterate' Iran's power plants if Hormuz strait not fully opened

"If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the US will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS," Trump wrote. 

The United States will destroy Iran's power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully opened within 48 hours, US President Donald Trump threatened in a Truth Social post on Saturday night. "If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS," Trump wrote.

The US strikes will start with "the biggest one [power plant] first," Trump stated. Trump's statement follows a report in Japanese media that Tehran is ready to let Japanese-related vessels pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The report came from Kyodo News, citing Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Tehran has started talks with Tokyo about possibly opening the Strait, Araghchi told the Japanese news agency in a phone interview on Friday. Meanwhile, the US and its allies have ramped up efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, deploying low-flying warplanes to strike Iranian boats and Apache helicoptersto intercept drones, US officials told the Wall Street Journal on Thursday. (Read Morer)

Iran responds to Trump’s ultimatum, threatens attacks on US, Israeli infrastructure

Iran threatens to strike US and Israeli infrastructure across the region if its facilities are attacked, responding to President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.     

Iran early Sunday morning responded to US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum demanding that it reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, threatening to strike all US and Israeli infrastructure across the region if its facilities came under attack. "If Iran's fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure belonging to the United States and the (Israeli) regime in the region will be targeted," a spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the body overseeing Iranian military operations, said in a statement quoted in Iran’s Fars news agency. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also warned that Iran would show "zero restraint" if its infrastructure was attacked. The threat came shortly after Trump stated that Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face strikes on its power plants. “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!" the President wrote in a post on Truth Social.

In a post published about an hour earlier, Trump said that “the United States has blown Iran off of the map", rejecting analysis stating he hasn’t met the goals of the war. “Yes I have, and weeks ahead of schedule! Their leadership is gone, their navy and air force are dead, they have absolutely no defense, and they want to make a deal. I don’t! We are weeks ahead of schedule," he wrote, adding, “Just like their incompetent Election coverage of me, The Failing New York Times always gets it wrong!"  

NUCLEAR SHOWDOWN IN IRAN

Missiles cloud Mideast skies over the Persian Gulf. Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz. Arab oil is choked off to world markets. Hezbollah and Hamas launch scores of missiles into Israel. Terror cells initiate cycles of violence in America. Global economies begin to collapse. Radioactivity permeates the skies over Bushehr’s nuclear reactor. Countless Iranian’s hastily seek refuge into neighboring nations. The Arabian Gulf becomes a cesspool of contamination. Desalinization plants can’t process the polluted waters. A humanitarian crisis burgeons out of control. A disaster of epic biblical proportion has finally arrived in the Middle East!    

About 2600 years ago the Hebrew prophets Jeremiah and Ezekiel issued parallel end times prophecies concerning modern-day Iran. Today the rogue country is becoming a nuclear nation and aggressively advancing its hegemony throughout the greater Middle East. Nuclear Showdown in Iran, The Ancient Prophecy of Elam is a non-fiction thriller taking the reader on a journey of discovery through the eyes of the prophets and the minds of today’s key national players.Can anything good come from the evil that is about to befall us? The ancient prophecy of Elam will reveal what God has ordained, what the prophets saw and what you need to know and do now.  A must read by Dr Bill Salus.  (CLICK HERE)

Over 20 Nations Announce Readiness to Help Open Strait of Hormuz

More than 20 nations spanning from Asia to Europe to the Gulf have expressed a “readiness to contribute” to the effort of opening up the Strait of Hormuz amid threats to ships by the Islamist regime in Iran. In a joint statement released on Saturday morning, the nations of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Republic of Korea, Romania, Slovenia, Sweden, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom condemned in the “strongest terms” the recent attacks by Iran against unarmed, civilian shipping vessels, its attacks on oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Gulf, and its move to shut down traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.      

“We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict. We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817,” the group of nations said. “Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.”    

“We emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations,” they continued. “We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.”   (Read More)

In Tehran: IDF strikes IRGC ballistic missiles production facilities

IDF takes aim at facilities key for the production of critical components for the development of ballistic missiles.

The IDF continues its strikes on the systems and capabilities of the Iranian terror regime. Overnight, the Israeli Air Force, acting on precise IDF intelligence, completed a wide-scale strike sortie in Tehran, during which dozens of Iranian terror regime targets belonging to the Iranian regime were struck. As part of the strike sortie, facilities utilized for the production of critical components for the development of ballistic missiles, belonging to the the Iranian regime’s security apparatus were targeted.

Among the sites struck were a central IRGC compound utilized for the production and development of ballistic missile components, a missile production components storage facility, a compound belonging to the Ministry of Defense responsible for producing missiles fuel, and a ballistic missiles components production site. "The strikes significantly degrade the Iranian terror regime’s capabilities to continue producing critical components for ballistic missiles at these sites," the IDF noted, promising to "continue to expand its strikes against the regime’s weapons production facilities in order to degrade its capabilities to advance its ballistic missile program, which poses a direct threat to the State of Israel."

In addition to the sites mentioned above, the IDF struck several defense systems of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran. "The completed strikes are part of the current operational phase aimed at further expanding the damage to the core systems and foundations of the Iranian terror regime," the IDF added. (Source)

Israel orders all Litani River bridges destroyed to hem in Hezbollah

The IDF also will speed up the destruction of southern Lebanese homes exploited by the terror group.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, after an assessment of the situation in Lebanon with top-ranking Israel Defense Forces staff on Sunday, said he and the prime minister have ordered the IDF to “immediately destroy all the bridges over the Litani river” to prevent the movement of Hezbollah terrorists and weapons to the south. On March 18, the IDF destroyed two bridges over the Litani after destroying one on March 13, reportedly the first targeting of Lebanese state-owned infrastructure since the start of hostilities. Katz also ordered the IDF to speed up the destruction of homes in southern Lebanese villages to eliminate terrorist infrastructure, following a similar model used by the Israeli army in Rafah and Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip.

“The IDF continues its ground maneuver in Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah terrorists and reach the anti-tank [firing line] ... in order to protect the settlements,” he added. On Sunday, Hezbollah hit a car in Misgav Am, a kibbutz in the Upper Galilee, with an anti-tank missile, killing one Israeli. Misgav Am is located directly on the border with southern Lebanon. Anti-tank guided missiles have an effective range of 2.5 to 5.5 kilometers (1.5 to 3.1 miles). “We are determined not to allow the pre-Oct. 7 reality to return,” said Katz.

“We promised to protect the residents of the north, and that’s exactly what we’re doing.” “The IDF will continue to allow the evacuation of residents of southern Lebanon north to the Litani River from the war zone for their protection,” he added. The IDF ordered all Lebanese residents south of the Litani to move north on March 4. An estimated 1 million Lebanese have been displaced to date due to the fighting. (Source)

After the Fatwa: Iran’s Path to the Nuclear Weapon

For two decades, one document stood between Iran and the bomb — at least in diplomatic terms. Ayatollah Khamenei’s fatwa against nuclear weapons was cited in international negotiations, referenced by Western analysts, and treated by some governments as genuine evidence that Iran would not pursue nuclear arms. On February 28, 2026, Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike. The fatwa died with him. And 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity — enough, if further enriched, for ten nuclear weapons — sit in an underground tunnel complex in Isfahan, beyond the reach of international inspectors. The question is no longer whether Iran has the technical capacity to build a nuclear weapon. The question is whether anything still prevents it from doing so.

The Fatwa: Diplomatic Shield, Not Religious Conviction.

For years, Iran’s nuclear fatwa served as a centerpiece of its diplomatic defense. Iranian officials cited it at the United Nations, in negotiations with the P5+1, and in public statements intended to reassure the international community. Some Western analysts accepted it as a meaningful constraint.

The diplomatic shield is gone.

As of the IAEA’s last verified inspection on June 13, 2025 — the day Israeli strikes began — Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. This is the largest stockpile of highly enriched uranium held by any non-nuclear-weapon state in history. The majority — over 200 kilograms — was stored in an underground tunnel complex at Isfahan. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed in March 2026 that the material is “probably still there.” Satellite imagery shows the tunnel complex sustained minimal damage from the June 2025 strikes, with regular vehicular activity continuing around its entrance. Additional quantities were stored at Natanz and possibly Fordow. (Read More)

Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility hit in US-Israeli strikes, atomic energy organisation says

The US and Israel struck Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, targeting its enrichment complex. Iran says no radioactive leak was reported after the airstrike.

The United States and Israel struck Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility in an airstrike on Saturday (Mar 21), the Islamic Republic’s atomic energy organisation said. This comes as the war in West Asia enters its fourth week. According to a statement carried by Iranian media, the facility’s enrichment complex was targeted in a morning attack. (Source)

Iran claims US, Israel attack on Natanz enrichment facility, Israel denies knowledge of strike

The US and Israel struck the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Iran on Saturday, Iranian state media and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran claimed. The IDF told The Jerusalem Post that it was not aware of an Israeli strike targeting Natanz. The AEOI, the government body that runs and oversees the country’s nuclear installations, said no radioactive leakage was subsequently detected in the area. Additionally, no casualties were reported in the alleged incident.

According to the AEOI, the strike targeted the Shahid Ahmadi-Roshan Enrichment Complex in Natanz. "This is an action in violation of international law," the organization claimed. "Technical assessments indicate that no radioactive material leakage has occurred and there is no danger to residents of the surrounding areas." Later on Saturday, the AEOI called on the International Atomic Energy Agency and the international community to condemn the attack.

"Why don't the International Atomic Energy Agency and the international community take a clear, firm, and international law-based stance on the attack on Iran's peaceful nuclear facilities and the violation of international obligations and laws?" the body wrote on X. Previously, on Friday, US President Donald Trump asserted in a post to Truth Social that "we are getting very close to meeting our objectives" in the war with Iran. Among those objectives the president listed was "never allowing Iran to get even close to nuclear capability." An earlier strike against the complex was reported on March 2, during the first days of the operations against the Islamic Republic, according to Iran's ambassador to the UN nuclear watchdog. (Read More)

US military preparing for potential ground invasion of Iran - report

The Pentagon has made preparations for deploying US ground forces into Iran, according to a CBS News report citing multiple sources briefed on the subject on Friday. According to the report, senior US military officials have submitted detailed preparation requests to US President Donald Trump as Operation Epic Fury against the Iranian regime continues. Additionally, the Pentagon is reportedly preparing for the potential detention of Iranian soldiers and paramilitary operatives during a ground offensive against Iran.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement: "It's the job of the Pentagon to make preparations in order to give the Commander in Chief maximum optionality; it does not mean the President has made a decision, and as the President said in the Oval Office yesterday, he is not planning to send ground troops anywhere at this time." The US will be deploying thousands of additional Marinesand sailors to the Middle East, Reuters reported, citing three US officials, as the US-Israeli war on Iran reached the three-week mark.

Trump said on Friday that the US could "leave the Iran operation right now and still leave Tehran unable to rebuild for more than a decade," but explained that that's "not an acceptable situation. “If we left right now, it would take them at least 10 years to rebuild, but rebuild they will,” Trump said in the roughly 15-minute call with CNBC. “If we stay longer, they’ll never rebuild,” he added. (Source)

Iran fires two missiles at US-UK military base beyond known Iranian military range - WSJ

Iran fired two ballistic missiles at a joint US-UK military base, Diego Garcia, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday night, citing multiple US officials. One of the missiles failed in flight, and a US warship fired an interception at the other. At this time, it has not been determined if an interception was made, but neither missile hit the base, officials told WSJ. Diego Garcia is located about 4,000 kilometers from Iran, double the 2,000-kilometer range that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran’s ballistic missiles had last month.

According to a report published by Israel’s Alma Research and Education Center at the start of the war, Iran’s missile inventory primarily consists of short-range ballistic missiles, which reach up to 1,000 kilometers, and medium-range ballistic missiles, which can reach as far as 3,000 kilometers. However, the Center added that “according to various reports, long-range ballistic missiles are currently in advanced stages of development.”

Diego Garcia is located on an island in the middle of the Indian Ocean and functions as a strategic base, from which the US hosts bombers, nuclear submarines, and guided-missile destroyers, WSJ wrote. (Ed note: It is interesting to note that 2000 kilometers is about 1243 miles. Also, along wth the nuclear submarines, the US lands their B-2 bombers there.)   (Source)