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Thursday, February 19, 2026

Trump reportedly told US could hit Iran as soon as Saturday, as he mulls potential strikes

US President Donald Trump
has been told by his top national security advisers that the American military could launch strikes on Iran as soon as Saturday, CBS News reports, though he has still yet to make a decision on whether to green light an attack.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the US broadcaster says the timeline for a decision is expected to extend beyond this weekend, adding that the Pentagon is temporarily shifting some personnel out of the Middle East in the coming days as it readies for a potential Iranian counterattack if the US strikes   (Source)

Ayatollah Khamenei Threatens to Sink U.S. Aircraft Carrier

Iran’s “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
claimed on Tuesday that his military has weapons capable of sending an American aircraft carrier “to the bottom of the sea” – and will use them if President Donald Trump orders new strikes against Iran’s illegal nuclear weapons program. “The U.S. President has said that for 47 years, the United States hasn’t been able to eliminate the Islamic Republic. That is a good confession. I say: ‘You, too, will not be able to do this,’” Khamenei jeered at Trump, in remarks carried by Iranian state media.

"The Americans constantly say that they’ve sent a warship towards Iran. Of course, a warship is a dangerous piece of military hardware. However, more dangerous than that warship is the weapon that can send that warship to the bottom of the sea,” the ayatollah said. “The U.S. President keeps saying that they have the strongest military force in the world. The strongest military force in the world may at times be struck so hard that it cannot get up again,” he threatened.

The U.S. Navy currently has one aircraft carrier within striking range of Iran, the USS Abraham Lincoln, the strike group of which includes over 90 aircraft and three guided missile destroyers. A second carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is en route to the Middle East and could arrive on station within three weeks. (Read More)

Iran issues NOTAM over planned rocket launches on Thursday, US FAA says


Iran
issued on Wednesday a notice to airmen that it plans rocket launches in areas across its south on Thursday from 3:30 GMT to 13:30 GMT, the US Federal Aviation Administration website showed on Wednesday. Iran held naval drills this week in the Strait of Hormuz and plans to hold a joint naval exercise with Russia on Thursday. The notice was issued amid heightened tensions with the US, which has deployed warships near Iran, as US Vice President JD Vance said Washington was weighing whether to continue diplomatic engagement with Tehran or pursue other options.

The NOTAM system provides pilots, flight crews, and other airspace users with critical safety notices.The announcement came after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt assured that diplomacy is the US President Donald Trump's first option, adding that "He is always thinking about what's in the best interest of the United States of America." Sources told The Jerusalem Post that an attack by the US on Iran is likely to eventually happen, but not necessarily in the coming days, despite the spike in global media “noise” surrounding the conflict.

President Donald Trump has not yet decided on his final course of action, even if his disappointment in Iran’s negotiating positions this week makes an eventual American attack on Tehran more likely. Rather, many of the latest reports are viewed by some Israeli officials as global media noise picking up on the general tone of Trump administration officials coming out of this week’s negotiations, rather than crossing the threshold. Satellite images show that Iran has recently built a concrete shield over a new facility at a sensitive military site and covered it in soil, experts say, advancing work at a location reportedly bombed by Israel in 2024 amid tensions with the US. (Read More)




Iran Pivots to Solid-Fuel Warfare as the West Braces for a Hypersonic Strike

Planners in Washington and Jerusalem are preparing for a synchronized swarm involving Houthis, Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah. all triggered by a central Iranian ‘Surprise Doctrine’.
Following an intense internal "post-mortem" into how they underestimated the threat to their nuclear program, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has shifted to a lethal new strategy designed to launch a wide-scale surprise attack before Western intelligence can blink.

As President Trump maintains the U.S. military in a "siege" state of readiness, the intelligence community is tracking a radical re-engineering of the Iranian arsenal: a transition from static, liquid-fueled missiles to highly mobile, solid-fuel systems that can vanish into the landscape and launch in a matter of minutes. Western intelligence reports indicate that Iran has significantly scaled back production of older, static missiles in favor of high-mobility platforms. This shift is designed to ensure that when the "Doomsday" order is given, the launch sites are already moving. 

* Kheibar Shekan: A next-generation missile with a 1,450 km range, specifically designed with maneuvering capabilities to bypass interceptors.

* Sejjil: The cornerstone of the mobile fleet, boasting a 2,000 km range that can strike any point in Israel from almost anywhere inside Iran.

* Russian-Tech Cruise Missiles: Diverse arrays of low-flying cruise missiles, based on Russian technology, designed to hug the terrain and avoid radar detection.


In response to this "Surprise Doctrine," Israel has accelerated upgrades to the David’s Sling (Magic Wand) system, specifically fine-tuning its ability to track high-speed cruise missiles. However, the IDF remains in its highest defensive posture, acknowledging that a surprise attack of this magnitude would force the military to pivot instantly from offense to wide-scale search and rescue at multiple "destruction sites" across the country. (Source)

Trump is striking out on peace


Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, Iran: As the region veers toward war and opportunities are lost, chaos is starting to run the bases.


U.S. President Donald Trump touts the 2020 Abraham Accords as his foreign-policy achievement and criticizes former President Joe Biden for not expanding them. But so far in his second term, Trump is batting .000. He has not built on the accords beyond the largely symbolic case of the non-Middle Eastern country of Kazakhstan. And he squandered the clearest opportunity of all: finishing the Saudi deal that Biden left on the table. Trump entered office with maximum leverage over Riyadh. The Saudis desperately wanted a U.S. security guarantee, advanced arms and nuclear technology. Trump could have demanded normalization with Israel as the price of admission. Instead, he whiffed, giving away the leverage and choosing to sacrifice Israel for the promise of a trillion dollars in Saudi investments in the United States.

Riyadh has now moved on, distracted by domestic economic troubles and falling revenues. As the window narrows, the biggest prize in Arab-Israeli diplomacy remains unclaimed. And what about Trump’s other Gulf “friends”? Has he ever raised normalization with Qatar? Trump calls the emir “one of the great rulers of the world.” He praises Qatar as a “very good ally.” He applauds its role in hostage negotiations. He even handed Doha a security guarantee without the inconvenience of a treaty requiring Senate approval.

Yet no one in the White House seems willing to say aloud what makes Qatari normalization impossible: Qatar bankrolls Hamas, promotes radical Islam and traffics in antisemitism. Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and the real architect of the accords, surely knows that. Trump simply prefers not to mention it. And what about Kuwait? (Ed note: Wow, now that's a hard hitting article. Sounds like Psalm 83 is still very much in play today.)  (Read More)

Israel moves to clarify and register property ownership in Judea, Samaria

"Full land registration will prevent illegal annexation of public land, and bring to a close the decades-long era of endless legal challenges to Jewish homes and communities built in good faith and in accordance with the law," said Regavim's international division director.

The Israeli government on Sunday approved a proposal to resume the process of land registration in Judea and Samaria for the first time since the 1967 Six-Day War. The agenda item was introduced to the Cabinet by Justice Minister Yariv Levin, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Defense Minister Israel Katz. The Regavim movement, an NGO dedicated to the protection of Israel’s national lands, applauded the move.

“Restarting the survey and registration process means Israel will now formally map and record ownership under its current administrative system, without any change to the political status of the territory in question,” said Naomi Kahn, director of Regavim’s International Division. The move does not constitute “creeping annexation” or a “backdoor declaration of sovereignty,” she said. Rather, it is a technical, administrative step to clarify and register property ownership, with no direct political impact. This is because the Cabinet instructed the Israel Defense Forces, which administers Judea and Samaria, to request that the Justice Ministry register the land claims.

This is essentially the same mechanism Israel has been using since 1967 in applying civil law to Israelis living throughout Judea and Samaria. In practical terms, Kahn said the ruling will result in clear determination of ownership—for both Arabs and Jews—that will create legally binding property boundaries for individuals and for publicly owned land. (Read More)

ISRAEL

 


IDF appoints first-ever female naval missile boat commander to lead naval combat ops.


The IDF on Wednesday announced that it has appointed the first-ever female missile boat commander, Lt.-Cmdr. R. Recent years have seen an increase in female naval sailors and officers, but R will be the navy’s most prominent new female representative. According to the IDF, the missile boat in question has been and is expected to be at the forefront of naval combat operations.

It was involved in attacking the Syrian navy, assassinating the political head of Hamas in Gaza, the head of Hezbollah’s aerial threats Unit 127, and a variety of other offensive and defensive operations. R joined the navy’s captains course in 2016 and has since fulfilled a wide range of positions, including being a missile boat deputy commander and the commander of a Dvora-class vessel.

Israel Navy Commander V.-Adm. David Saar Salama praised R, saying she was the right choice for the role based solely on her qualifications, while clearly the IDF wanted to highlight the advancement of women in combat roles. (Source)




Wednesday, February 18, 2026

Unbridgeable Gaps: Tehran Quietly Admits the Nuclear Deal is Slipping Away


Internal reports from Tehran reveal a growing admission that the gap between US demands and Iranian capabilities is unbridgeable, leaving the nuclear deal on the verge of collapse.

The high stakes diplomatic effort to prevent a regional war has hit a wall as Iranian officials privately admit that the distance between Washington’s requirements and Tehran’s red lines may be impossible to close. Despite public statements from the Iranian Foreign Ministry suggesting a constructive atmosphere, a recent report from the Wall Street Journal indicates a deep sense of internal pessimism within the Iranian government. The Trump administration has reportedly issued a final ultimatum: Iran must begin the total dismantlement of its nuclear program or face "other options" that involve a massive military response. With the US Vice President suggesting that diplomacy may have reached its natural end, the world is now waiting for a two week window to expire, during which Iran must decide if it will offer unprecedented concessions or prepare for the consequences of a failed negotiation.

The gap in expectations became clear following the three hour meeting in Geneva between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US advisors Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. While Araghchi spoke of a "clearer path," Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that the Iranians are still refusing to acknowledge the specific red lines set by President Trump. "The President wants to find a solution, either diplomatically or in other ways," Vance noted, making it clear that the US will not settle for the "sunset clauses" or partial freezes seen in previous agreements like the 2015 JCPOA.

Internal Iranian sources have expressed concern that the White House is no longer interested in a standard "give and take" negotiation. Instead, the US is demanding the complete removal of enriched uranium and the permanent shuttering of underground sites. In Tehran, officials are beginning to realize that Trump’s refusal to budge on these points means that the diplomatic track might be nothing more than a final formality before the transition to a military campaign. (Ed note: Are we at that point? Are both sides getting ready to begin? Watch the Iranian coastline for those underground rockets to go after the US Navy fleet first.)   (Read More)

Massive weeks-long war between US, Iran could begin 'very soon,' Axios reports


The United States is closer to military conflict with Iran than most Americans realize, and a massive weeks-long campaign could "begin very soon," Axios reported on Wednesday.  
Such a conflict would likely involve an operation more like a war than the single-day operation in Venezuela conducted last month, the report cited "sources" as saying. Those same sources told Axios that it would likely be a joint US-Israeli campaign with a broader scope than the 12-day war last June.

The second round of talks between the United States and Iran ended on Tuesday, with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meeting Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Although both sides said the meetings resulted in progress, several sources told The Jerusalem Post that significant gaps remain. 

Vice President JD Vance has also addressed the talks in an interview with Fox News, saying that while Trump wants a deal, he could decide that diplomacy has "reached its natural end." "We would very much like, as the President has said, to resolve this through a conversation and a diplomatic negotiation," Vance said, "but the President has all options on the table."  (Read More)

Vance: Nuclear talks showed some progress, but Iran won’t acknowledge Trump’s red lines

Israeli officials said to think negotiations likely doomed, US president determined to strike, as flight trackers show dozens of American fighter jets move toward Mideast in past day


US Vice President JD Vance said some progress was made in the second round of nuclear talks with Tehran in Geneva on Tuesday, even as Hebrew media said Israeli officials think the indirect talks are likely doomed and that US President Donald Trump and his close advisers seek to strike Iran. “In some ways it went well. They agreed to meet afterward,” Vance told Fox News of the Geneva round. “But in other ways, it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through.”

Among those red lines is that Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon, said Vance, arguing that a nuclear Islamic Republic would lead to an arms race across the world that would be dangerous for America. While Iran claims it is not seeking nuclear arms, “there a number of things that make it clear that they are interested in acquiring a nuclear weapons,” said Vance.

“The president of the United States is very much trying to find a solution here, whether it’s through diplomatic options or through another option, that means the Iranians cannot have a nuclear weapon,” Vance said. “We’re going to keep on working it, but of course, the president reserves the ability to say when he thinks that diplomacy has reached its natural end,” he said. “We hope we don’t get to that point, but if we do, that, will be the president’s call.” (Read More)

US Deploys Tomahawk-Laden Submarine to Iran’s Doorstep


The USS Georgia
guided-missile submarine joins the massive US "armada" near Iran. Capable of carrying 154 Tomahawks, the veteran of 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer provides a lethal first-strike option as nuclear talks in Geneva reach a breaking point. The USS Georgia, an Ohio-class guided-missile submarine (SSGN) capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles, is currently operating in the region under U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), positioned between the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf as a deterrent to Iran.

Unlike standard attack submarines, the Georgia is an SSGN, a specialized platform designed for massive conventional saturation. It carries up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles, allowing it to single-handedly overwhelm enemy air defenses. The vessel is equipped to support up to 66 Special Operations Forces (SOF), providing the capability for clandestine raids alongside its missile strikes. Positioned between the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, the submarine offers a "first-strike" capability that can bypass the drone swarms and missile batteries currently guarding the Iranian coastline.

The submarine represents a covert first-strike capability against Iranian command centers, air defenses, and missile sites. Its presence is not merely symbolic; it is a direct callback to the surgical strikes of June 2025. During Operation Midnight Hammer, the Georgia played a pivotal role in the destruction of Iranian nuclear infrastructure. While B-2 bombers hit Fordow and Natanz, the Georgia launched over 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles into the Isfahan research facility, causing "extremely severe damage" and setting the regime's nuclear ambitions back by years. U.S. officials have not publicly confirmed the exact location of the USS Georgia, as submarine positions are classified, but open-source intelligence and reports indicate its presence in the area to support maritime security and deter potential adversaries. (Source)

Massive Iranian Military Mobilization Reported at Key Nuclear Facilities

Dramatic satellite imagery from ISIS reveals Iran is fortifying nuclear and military sites at Parchin and Natanz with thick concrete and earth layers. As US forces converge on the region, Tehran is moving troops and hardening tunnels to withstand a potential aerial assault. As diplomatic talks in Geneva pause under a cloud of uncertainty, dramatic new reports indicate that Iran has entered a state of maximum alert. Satellite imagery reveals that Tehran is rapidly fortifying its most sensitive strategic and nuclear assets to protect them from a potential US military strike.

An analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), reported by Channel 12 News, highlights significant activity at the Parchin military base near Tehran, a site long suspected of hosting advanced nuclear and technological development. Over the last three weeks, Iran has been observed covering a key building previously used for nuclear-related purposes with thick layers of earth.

Comparison with previous imagery shows that the vast majority of the facility is now shielded, with its roof heavily reinforced and obscured. The buildup is equally intense at the mysterious military facility currently being carved deep into the mountains near the Natanz nuclear site: Satellite photos show extensive efforts to "harden" and reinforce the tunnels leading into the mountain. (Read More)

Russia's "Doomsday" Plane Lands in Tehran Amid Heightened Tensions

The arrival of a Russian Tu-214PU
command post in Tehran signals continued strategic cooperation under the Russia-Iran partnership. The aircraft features encrypted communications and electromagnetic shielding for high-level military coordination. A Russian Tupolev Tu-214PU airborne command post, often referred to as a "Doomsday" plane, landed in Tehran, departing from Moscow’s Vnukovo International Airport and arriving at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport.

The aircraft, operated by Russia’s elite “Rossiya” Special Flight Squadron, is designed as a hardened command-and-control center with secure data links, encrypted satellite communications, electromagnetic shielding, and a range exceeding 7,000 kilometers, enabling it to function as a mobile headquarters during crises, including nuclear scenarios. The deployment is seen as a deliberate signal of deepening strategic ties between Moscow and Tehran, potentially involving high-level discussions on military cooperation, intelligence sharing, or contingency planning under their January 2025 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty.

This comes amid escalating regional tensions, with bilateral trade surpassing $5 billion annually, including arms transfers such as Iran's Shahed drones to Russia and potential deliveries of Su-35 jets and S-400 systems to Iran. Social media reports have highlighted the event, raising concerns about further escalation in the Middle East. No official statements from Russian or Iranian authorities have been released regarding the specific purpose of the visit. Updates will be provided as more information becomes available. (Source)

Iran Fires Live Missiles in Strait of Hormuz as Talks Begin — IRGC Says U.S. Carriers ‘Can’t Do a Damn Thing’


Iran fired live missiles into the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily disrupted traffic through the strategic oil chokepoint Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s envoys opened high-stakes nuclear talks in Geneva, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei simultaneously warning that American warships could be sent “to the bottom of the sea.”

Iranian state-affiliated outlets reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missiles from coastal and inland positions during what it called the “Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz” exercise, while drone units operated under signal-jamming conditions. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supply passes — is one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors

Rear Adm. Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the IRGC Navy, said Iran stands ready to shut down the waterway if ordered by senior leadership. "The decision to close the Strait of Hormuz rests with the senior leaders,” Tangsiri said, adding that Iran’s forces are prepared to carry out such an order. The missile launches unfolded as Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, met Iranian officials in Geneva for a second round of indirect nuclear negotiations. (Read More)


Khamenei as sides meet: US warships can be sent “to the bottom of the sea"

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
published a series of threatening posts in English on social media on Monday, coinciding with the second round of renewed negotiations between Iran and the US. In his first post, Khamenei addressed statements by the US President regarding American military strength. "The US President keeps saying that they have the strongest military force in the world. The strongest military force in the world may at times be struck so hard that it cannot get up again," he wrote.

In a second post, Khamenei referred to reports of American naval deployments in the region, and threatened: "The Americans constantly say that they’ve sent a warship toward Iran. Of course, a warship is a dangerous piece of military hardware. However, more dangerous than that warship is the weapon that can send that warship to the bottom of the sea." "The US President has said that for 47 years, the United States hasn’t been able to eliminate the Islamic Republic. That is a good confession. I say, ‘You, too, will not be able to do this,’" Khamenei wrote in another post.

In a fourth post, the Supreme Leader criticized what he described as American interference in Iran’s internal affairs. "A sign of the decline of the corrupt, oppressive US empire is its irrationality, such as interfering in our country’s internal affairs. They say, ‘Limit your missiles to this range.’ What ’s that to do with you?! Without deterrent weaponry, a country will be crushed by the enemy," he stated.  (Ed note: The old man may be right about that comment. However this standoff is settled, Persia will make another appearance in Ezekiel 38/39, and could we now be looking at the prophecy in Jeremiah 49:34-39?)   (Source)

Jordan walks a tightrope as internal threats mount

As it restructures its security apparatus to confront mounting regional threats, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has also adopted an increasingly confrontational foreign policy toward Israel. But what begins as incitement often evolves into a domestic threat. King Abdullah II has recently issued unusual directives to reorganize Jordan's security agencies in light of a new Middle East reality. At the heart of the plan is a new strategy and roadmap designed to structurally transform the kingdom's armed forces within three years.

The goal, Abdullah has made clear, is to enable the military to address present and future threats, including those posed by technological developments. The aim is to ensure that the Jordanian Armed Forces and other security bodies can operate effectively in "diverse operational environments," including against actors using artificial intelligence, cyberattacks and drones. The move may reflect lessons drawn from the wars in Syria and Yemen, where conventional armies struggled against terrorist organizations.

In recent years, public discourse in Jordan has increasingly focused on threats of terrorist infiltration and the establishment of sleeper cells within the kingdom. This comes alongside ongoing weapons and drug smuggling across Jordan's borders using drones. Despite the collapse of Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime, which had been the primary force behind the captagon drug trade, criminal networks continue their smuggling attempts. (Ed note: Is the area of Ammon and Moab no longer happy with the Hashemite royal court?) (Read More)

Hamas continues staunch refusal to disarm


Senior Hamas official Basem Naim has told the far-left American outlet Drop Site that the terrorist organization will not agree to unilateral disarmament demands. The interview comes as President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have reiterated calls for the demilitarization of Gaza as part of efforts to move forward with reconstruction and a potential second phase of a ceasefire arrangement.

Naim, who has been involved in ceasefire discussions, told Drop Site that Hamas “will not accede to sweeping demands" to disarm and would reject what he described as total demilitarization of the Gaza Strip. He said the group’s position is tied to broader political conditions.

“Our position on this matter is very clear," Naim said. “Before speaking about disarmament or confiscation of weapons, we believe it is necessary for Netanyahu and his extremist government, along with the mediators and the American guarantor, to ensure full implementation of everything agreed upon in the first phase." He added that the issue is “fundamentally political, not security-based," and argued that the solution lies in ending what he termed the “Zionist occupation." (Source)

Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Trump to be ‘indirectly’ involved in Iran nuclear negotiations

The president says Tehran does not want to face the consequences of not making a deal as a second round of talks opens in Geneva amid a U.S. military buildup.


U.S. President Donald Trump will “indirectly” take part in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations set to begin on Tuesday in Geneva, he said on Monday, expressing optimism that Tehran wants an agreement despite recent tensions. Speaking with reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said, “I’ll be involved in those talks indirectly and they’ll be very important. We’ll see what can happen.”

“Iran’s a very tough negotiator—they’re good negotiators, or bad negotiators,” he added. “I would say they’re bad negotiators because we could have had a deal instead of sending the B-2s in to knock out their nuclear potential. I hope they’re going to be more reasonable. They want to make a deal.” Asked whether he had been told a deal was nearly impossible, Trump responded, “No, no. I think they want to make a deal. I don’t think they want the consequences of not making a deal. They want to make a deal.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has already arrived in Geneva for what will be a second round of indirect, Oman-mediated talks after an initial meeting in Muscat, with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner expected to lead the American delegation, according to Iranian state media and previous White House statements.

Araghchi met with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi in Geneva on Monday in what both men described in X posts as “in-depth technical discussions,” with Araghchi saying that “nuclear experts” would join the talks. Araghchi also said on Monday that he was meeting with Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. talks. (Ed note: One can see that FM Araghchi is already in Geneva working this whole affair, and waiting for the Americans to show up. And what is this "indirect" thing? Is that like being a little bit "pregnant"?) (Read More)

Report: US uncertainty grows over Iran regime change as Trump discusses military options

US President Donald Trump,
who has been escalating his rhetoric against Iran, on Friday expressed his belief that regime change in Iran “would be the best thing that could happen." However, sources familiar with the administration's planning revealed to CNN on Monday that the US still lacks a clear strategy for what would follow the removal of Iran's government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized this uncertainty during a congressional hearing last month, stating that “no one knows" who would take over if the regime were to collapse, the report noted.

CNN also reported that the US intelligence community has warned that the likely alternative leadership could be even more problematic. If the Iranian regime fell, the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would likely seize control, at least temporarily, according to sources with knowledge of the situation. “The IRGC is definitely prominent and functions above the standard military bureaucracy, but it is hard to predict exactly what would happen in a regime collapse scenario," said one source familiar with recent US intelligence reports.

The Trump administration’s understanding of the IRGC's internal hierarchy remains limited following the elimination of Iran's most powerful military commander, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, during Trump’s first term. In contrast, US intelligence had a much clearer understanding of Venezuela's power structure before its capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Several sources have suggested that there was a critical window of opportunity for military strikes several weeks ago when Iran's protests were at their height. At that time, US military action could have potentially tipped the balance in favor of the opposition, providing a momentum boost for Iranians seeking to overthrow their government. However, these sources now question whether Trump “missed the moment" and whether military action now would be as effective. (Read More)

Rubio on Iran: ‘Complicated’ to negotiate with ‘radical Shia clerics’

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio
stressed on Sunday the challenge in negotiating with the Islamic Republic of Iran due to the “pure theology” that drives its decision-making.“We’re dealing with radical Shia clerics and people who make geopolitical decisions on the basis of pure theology,” Rubio told reporters at the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany.

“It’s a complicated thing. No one’s ever been able to do a successful deal with Iran, but we’re going to try,” he went on to say. Referencing the constitutional requirement for the presidency to wage war with congressional approval, Rubio stated that, “We’ll always comply with the applicable laws of the United States in terms of involving Congress in any decision—but right now we’re not talking about any of that.

“We are postured in the region for one simple reason… we understand that there could be threats to our forces in the region; we’ve seen them threatened in the past, and we want to make sure that we have sufficient capacity to defend them, if God forbid that were to happen.” (Read More)

Will Qatar "buy" Gaza for Hamas?

Qatar reportedly intends to pay the highest amount for the reconstruction of Gaza in order to increase its influence in the Peace Council on behalf of Hamas.


Qatar is considering paying the highest amount for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip as part of the effort established by U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Peace Council," as reported this evening (Monday) on Kan News. In the Peace Council, which is expected to be responsible for financing the reconstruction of the strip, each member country is supposed to contribute about one billion dollars to the overall project, which will include not only the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip but also funding for a peacekeeping force that will operate in the area.

Qatar is already paying high amounts for fuel entering Gaza through Egypt, and the country aims to increase its influence in the Middle East by making a major contribution to the reconstruction of the strip. According to Qatar’s approach, "He who holds the money holds the power," hence its desire to be the primary contributor to the project, likely in an attempt to maintain Hamas' rule.

Meanwhile, Israel is identifying issues in cooperation with Hamas. The organization refuses to transfer its powers to a technocratic committee that would be responsible for managing the strip once reconstruction begins. Hamas has sent a message to Arab countries stating that it seeks to promote a model of control similar to Hezbollah's in Lebanon, meaning maintaining its control as a political body in Gaza while only relinquishing some of its weapons. On the other hand, Israel has informed the Americans that it strongly opposes this and that Hamas should not be included in the management of the Gaza Strip. (Source)

Hezbollah leader vows to 'inflict pain' in response to Israeli strikes | LIVE BLOG

The IDF said earlier today, Monday, it struck and eliminated a Hezbollah operative in the area of Tallouseh in southern Lebanon. According to the military, the individual served as a local representative of Hezbollah and worked to rehabilitate terrorist infrastructure in the area. The IDF said he was responsible for coordinating between the organization and civilians on military and financial matters and operated to seize private assets for terrorist purposes.

The IDF said the operative’s actions violated the understandings between Israel and Lebanon. It added that over the past week, the 91st Division has eliminated four terrorists involved in efforts to restore Hezbollah infrastructure and stated it will continue operating to remove any threat against the State of Israel.

Earlier today, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem warned that the group may decide to retaliate against Israel’s ongoing strikes on its operatives in Lebanon, saying, “They may inflict pain upon us, but we, too, can inflict pain upon them.” He added that Hezbollah does not seek war but distinguishes between “defending against aggression and initiating a war.” In televised remarks marking slain Hezbollah commanders, Qassem said the group has so far refrained from responding out of concern for Lebanon’s situation but cautioned that “this current situation cannot continue,” without specifying when or how that might change. (Ed note: The area of Tallouseh is about 21 miles from the city of Tyre.)  (Read More)

ISRAEL, ON THE MOVE!

Cabinet okays new land registration process in West Bank; critics decry ‘massive land grab’


The cabinet authorizes the opening of a land registration process in the West Bank for the first time since 1967, which ministers who initiated the step say will enable the registration of broad swaths of land to the state. The terms of the cabinet resolution, initiated by the defense, finance, and justice ministers, authorize the Land Registration Authority in the Justice Ministry to carry out the land registration process, and it now will receive the necessary funding and manpower for this work. 

The ownership of some two-thirds of West Bank land has never been formally registered, including in Area C, which constitutes some 60% of the entire territory. Israel has full military and civilian control in Area C, which is where the new land registration process will take effect. The registration process will allow the registration of land with the Land Registration Authority if it is not currently registered as privately owned.

An official from the Peace Now organization says that although in theory there could be a fair land registration process for all parties in the West Bank, it would be very hard under current conditions for Palestinians to prove and assert ownership claims. This, he says, will likely lead to the declaration of hundreds of thousands of dunams of land in the territory as state land, meaning it will be available to Israel for the development of settlements, infrastructure, and transportation.

While state land is supposed to be managed for the benefit of all civilians, Israel makes it available almost exclusively for settlers. “The government has approved a massive land grab in the West Bank on the way to de facto annexation, in complete contradiction to the will of the people and the Israeli interest,” Peace Now says in response to the decision. Addressing US President Donald Trump, he says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is “annexing [the West Bank] right under your nose. (Ed note: Giv'at Ze'ev is about 3 miles northwest of Jerusalem, located just off highway 443, and they say it's about a 10 minute bus ride. The land is considered a part of Judea.) (Read More)

New settlement to ‘expand Jerusalem’ for first time since 1967 


A recent development agreement signed by the state and the West Bank’s Mateh Binyamin Regional Council will, once given final approval, see the establishment of a new settlement that would in practice constitute the first expansion of Jerusalem since 1967. The proposed settlement announced earlier this month would technically be a westward expansion of the Adam settlement, which lies very close to Jerusalem’s northeast boundary. It includes plans for the construction of some 2,780 housing units in a new “neighborhood” for Adam.

But the land on which the new settlement would be built is physically separated from Adam, first by Route 437, a major traffic artery, and second by the security barrier. The proposed settlement would therefore have much greater territorial contiguity with the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Neve Yaakov, which is inside Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries, than with Adam. It would not be a formal part of Jerusalem, and would officially be a neighborhood of Adam, although officials from the Peace Now organization claim that the new settlement would likely obtain at least some municipal services from Jerusalem.

The settlement would be built on 500 dunams of land between the Palestinian towns of Hizma and Al-Ram, and would involve an investment by the government of some NIS 120 million ($39 million) in order to construct the necessary infrastructure, public spaces and community institutions for the new development. The plan has yet to be deposited with the Civil Administration’s Higher Planning Committee, meaning that full authorization could still take as long as two years. Nevertheless, 500 housing units have already been marketed for the first phase of development, the Housing Ministry said. (Ed note: The Adam settlement is about 7 miles from Jerusalem. It is said that Neve Yaakov, located in northeast Jerusalem is about a hours walk to the Old City.)  (Read More)

Cabinet OKs new West Bank land registration process, critics decry ‘de-facto annexation’


The cabinet authorized on Sunday the opening of a land registration process in the West Bank for the first time since 1967, with the ministers who initiated the measure saying
it would enable the registration of broad swaths of land as state land available for Israeli development. The resolution authorized an initial budget of NIS 244 million ($79 million) for the land registration process in the years 2026 to 2030 in Area C of the West Bank, where Israel has full military and civilian control, and the establishment of 35 positions in various ministries and state agencies to conduct the registration work.

The explanatory text of the resolution noted, however, that the registration process will be lengthy and take at least a year and a half for every plot of land, if not more, and that registering all non-registered land in Area C could take up to 30 years. The process of establishing the registration mechanisms could itself take a year and a half, the resolution stated, but nevertheless set a goal of registering 15 percent of the unregistered land within five years. The Palestinian presidency condemned the step, saying it constitutes “a de facto annexation of occupied Palestinian territory and a declaration of the commencement of annexation plans aimed at entrenching the occupation through illegal settlement activity.”

Jordan’s Foreign Ministry, in a statement, called on the international community to “assume its legal and moral responsibilities, and to compel Israel, the occupying power, to stop its dangerous escalation.” Defense Minister Israel Katz, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and Justice Minister Yariv Levin lauded the decision, saying it will create legal certainty in the territory and protect the national interest.

...The cabinet ministers who initiated the new land registry process extolled the cabinet decision. “The resolution constitutes a real revolution in Judea and Samaria,” said Justice Minister Levin, using the biblical term for the West Bank. “The Land of Israel belongs to the people of Israel. The Israeli government is committed to deepening its grip on all parts [of the land], and this decision is an expression of that commitment.  (Ed note: The so called "West Bank" Hesed Olam, is located in the area really named Samaria and is at this time more of a place than a town.) (Read More)

Does the US have enough bunker busters to end Iran's nuclear program? - analysis


The question of whether the US can destroy the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility will partly be an intelligence race of who can outwit whom, matching offensive and defensive capabilities.

Reports on Friday that the United States was ordering an additional round of 30,000-pound (13,600-kilogram) mega bunker buster bombs, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), on an emergent basis raised the issue anew of whether the American military possesses the capability to end Iran’s nuclear program, should it decide to attack. There are at least two avenues from which to analyze the question. One is the fact that Washington is ordering new mega bunker buster bombs for the first time in years without carrying out a standard competitive bidding process.

The second is multiple differences between the defensive situation at Pickaxe Mountain, the largest remaining Iranian nuclear facility, which lies underneath a mountain, versus that at Fordow, the Islamic Republic’s key nuclear facility under a different mountain, which the US bombed with 12 MOPs in June 2025. Regarding the US military ordering new bunker busters, there are positive and negative points.

The positive points are that the US did not issue such orders immediately after June 2025 and that the orders are for these same bombs, and not for some new larger bomb that has yet to be developed. Had the American military ordered additional such bombs immediately after June 2025, this could have been a concern that there were not enough even for one more similar operation – such as what might be necessary against Tehran now. (Read More)

Monday, February 16, 2026

Why the Pentagon is buying 30,000-pound bunker busters as Iran tensions rise

Amid high-tensions between the United States and Iran, the US Air Force has awarded Boeing a sole-source contract to replenish its arsenal of GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs. The US dropped over a dozen MOPs on Iranian nuclear facilities in June during Operation Midnight Hammer.


According to a partially redacted justification notice posted online last week, the US Air Force said that it was awarding Boeing the sole-source contract because “this procurement and sustainment activity is critically needed to replenish the inventory of GBU-57's, ended during Operation Midnight Hammer (21 Jun. 25).”

Boeing is the only company that makes the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator and the justification notice is intended to explain why the Pentagon did not carry out a fully competitive tender for the specially designed munition.

The defense giant has “uniquely acquired expertise over a period of 18 years of adapting this specialized weapon to meet evolving mission needs as MOP transitioned from proof-of-concept to Full Operational Capability,” the document said, adding that awarding the contract to any other company would have resulted in unacceptable delays. (Read More)

The Oil Weapon: Iran Threatens Multi-Year Energy Blackout if War Begins

Tehran has responded to President Trump’s thirty-day deadline with a chilling promise of a "deterrent lesson," warning that any military action will trigger a global economic collapse and the permanent destruction of Gulf energy hubs.


As diplomatic teams prepare to head to Geneva for a high-stakes Tuesday summit, the Iranian leadership has issued a defiant and aggressive response to President Donald Trump’s recent ultimatum. General Mousavi, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, labeled Trump’s recent demands as "reckless" and unbefitting of a world leader. While the U.S. has pushed for a swift deal to curb nuclear activity, Tehran has signaled that it has no intention of backing down on its core capabilities. In a series of coordinated statements from the military, parliament, and state media, Iran has made it clear that while it is willing to discuss economic cooperation, its uranium enrichment program andmissile stockpiles are non-negotiable. Furthermore, the regime has warned that any attempt to resolve the standoff through force will result in a regional war that will bypass Iran’s borders and shatter the stability of the global energy market for years to come.

Ebrahim Rezai, the spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee, stated firmly on Sunday that the Geneva talks will not include concessions on nuclear fuel. "In the round of negotiations in Geneva, we will not discuss stopping or giving up uranium enrichment, and there is no intention to remove Iran's nuclear stockpiles from the country," Rezai said. He claimed that these points were already accepted by the Americans and are entirely separate from regional issues or missile development. According to Rezai, the "Zionist regime" remains the central problem in the region and should be dealt with in a separate framework with neighboring countries.

...The article explained that while a blocked shipping lane can be reopened quickly, the destruction of refineries takes years and billions of dollars to repair. In such a scenario, the global market would face a prolonged oil shortage that would cripple the economies of both Western and regional powers. Citing the failures of Western military campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the war against terrorists in Gaza, the Iranian press argued that military superiority does not guarantee victory. Instead, an attack on Iran would only "strengthen the discourse of resistance" and unite actors opposed to Western hegemony, turning a regional war into a permanent global crisis. (Read More)

Netanyahu: Iran ‘lies and cheats’

Any agreement must remove all enriched nuclear material from Iran, dismantle its enrichment infrastructure, curb its ballistic missile program and dismantle the axis of terror that Tehran has built across the region, said the Israeli premier.


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday reiterated his doubts regarding the possibility of any deal with Iran, which he said must include the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and not just stopping uranium enrichment. His comments came ahead of a second round of U.S.-Iranian talks in Geneva, Switzerland, on Tuesday, and amid a major American military buildup in the region which is still underway.

“I will not hide from you that I express my skepticism of any deal with Iran, because, frankly, Iran is reliable on one thing: they lie, and they cheat,” Netanyahu said in a keynote speech to the annual gathering of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in Jerusalem.

In his first public address after meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington last week, the Israeli leader said that any agreement must remove all enriched nuclear material from Iran, dismantle its enrichment infrastructure, curb its ballistic missile program and dismantle the axis of terror that Tehran has built across the region. “There shall be no enrichment capability—not stopping the enrichment process, but dismantling the equipment and the infrastructure that allows you to enrich in the first place,” he said. (Read More)

Trump told Netanyahu he’d back Israeli strikes on Iran if talks fail – report

Discussion of potential attack is ongoing, CBS reports; as 2nd round of US-Iran talks set to start, PM demands Iran remove enriched uranium, dismantle facilities, limit missiles.


US President Donald Trump told Prime Minister Netanyahu in December that he would support Israeli strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran could not reach a deal, CBS News reported on Sunday, citing two sources familiar with the matter. The US outlet reported that discussions about such an attack, roughly eight months after the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June, are ongoing. During last year’s war, the US joined the Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. This time, the American role in an Israeli attack would involve helping jets refuel in midair or aiding Israel in receiving permission to fly over neighboring countries, CBS reported.

Several countries have said they would not let their airspace be used for an attack on Iran. The report came as Iran’s foreign minister departed for Geneva on Sunday ahead of a second round of talks with the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program, and as Netanyahu voiced skepticism that the negotiations would succeed.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also acknowledged that the talks could fail, while emphasizing that Trump remains committed to seeing them through. Iran, meanwhile, signaled flexibility on its nuclear program and urged Washington to pursue a deal with mutual economic benefits. (Read More)




Netanyahu: Israel ready to phase out US military aid

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the opening gala of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations’ 51st Leadership Mission to Israel on Sunday night in Jerusalem.

The Prime Minister spoke about his recent trip to the United States and his meeting with President Trump. “I just had very important meeting with President Trump. The focus was on Iran. The President is determined to exhaust the possibilities of achieving an agreement," Netanyahu said. Addressing the Iranian issue, Netanyahu stated, “I expressed my skepticism of any deal with Iran because Iran is reliable on one thing - they lie and cheat." 

He outlined conditions that he said must be included in any agreement. “First, all enriched material has to leave Iran. Second, there should be no enrichment capability. Not just stop the process but dismantle the infrastructure that allows you to enrich. Third, need to deal also with the question of ballistic missiles. And the fourth is to dismantle is the axis of terror of Iran. And finally, distrust and verify. Must have effective inspections for all of the above." Turning to Gaza, Netanyahu said Israel had three goals in the war: “return the hostages, disarm and dismantle Hamas military capabilities, and third dismantle Hamas governing capabilities. The first has been achieved."

“Hamas must give up its weapons. The weapon that does the most damage is the AK-47. Assault weapons. There are 60,000 such weapons, they must go," he said. “First disarm Hamas. Second, demilitarize Gaza. We dismantled about 150 km of 500 km of tunnels. We’re giving the President’s plan a chance. It can be done the easy or hard way. We hope the easy way. Because we know the human cost of war. But that goal must be achieved. And one way or another it will be. “Gaza will not pose a threat ever again to the State of Israel," Netanyahu declared. On the economy, the Prime Minister said, “After 2 years of war, our economy is growing rapidly, our stock market is at an all-time high. The shekel vs the dollar is almost at a 30-year high. Inflation is going down." (Read More)

Syria demands full Israeli withdrawal

Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani
said that the current talks with Israel are focused on Israel’s withdrawal from territories it occupied in southern Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, and not on the Golan Heights issue. Speaking at a security conference in Munich, al-Shibani emphasized the importance of a full Israeli withdrawal to reach a security agreement between the two countries.

The negotiations will certainly not reach a point where there is acceptance of the current situation imposed by Israel in southern Syria," al-Shibani said. According to him, the process will ultimately lead to an Israeli withdrawal, a halt to interference in Syria’s internal affairs, respect for Syrian airspace, and non-interference with Syrian sovereignty.

He noted that the new Syrian regime has been working from day one to rebuild the country and unify internal ranks. However, he added, Israel may not view Syrian policies favorably or might be seeking to provoke conflicts in the region. In another context, al-Shibani said that the Syrian regime is working to integrate the civil and military institutions of the Kurdish minority within the Syrian government, and that there is no possibility of re-admitting ISIS-affiliated fighters who were held by the Kurdish militia and were recently transferred to Iraq. (Ed note: Yep, always remember to keep one eye on the state of Syria and old HTS.) (Source)

Israeli Tanker Jets Fly Openly in Syrian Skies

In a stark demonstration of Israel's evolving dominance over the skies of the Middle East, an Israeli Air Force (IAF) aerial refueling aircraft was publicly tracked operating deep inside Syrian airspace.

The Boeing 707 Re’em tanker, bearing tail number 264, transmitted an unencrypted squawk code of 4512 as it cruised visibly over eastern Syria near the border with Iraq. Flight tracking data from aviation enthusiasts and open-source intelligence monitors captured the jet's path in real time, with no apparent efforts to mask its identity or trajectory. The aircraft, a veteran of Israel's long-range strike capabilities, was observed loitering at altitudes typical for in-flight refueling operations, likely supporting fighter jets on extended patrols.

This overt incursion marks a profound departure from the shadows of secrecy that once defined Israeli operations in Syrian territory. Just a few years ago, such a flight would have triggered immediate Syrian air defenses, risking escalation with Damascus's Russian-backed forces or even direct confrontation with Iranian proxies. The skies over Syria were a no-man's-land of electronic warfare, where Israeli jets hugged terrain and jammed radars to evade detection during precision strikes on Hezbollah arms convoys or Iranian entrenchments.

But the landscape has changed irreversibly. The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in late 2024, followed by the fragmentation of Syrian military cohesion and the withdrawal of key Russian assets amid Moscow's quagmire in Ukraine, has left the country's airspace as porous as it is precarious. Israel's subsequent normalization pacts with Arab states, coupled with targeted operations that have decimated Iran's "Axis of Resistance," have further tilted the balance. No longer must the IAF operate as an uninvited guest; today, it moves as a de facto sovereign.

Syria's air defenses are a shell of their former selves, and with Iran's supply lines severed, the regime in Tehran watches helplessly as its strategic depth evaporates. Israel's reach now extends unchallenged from the Golan to the Euphrates." The implications ripple far beyond the tactical. For Iran, whose influence once radiated through Syria as a vital corridor for arming militants in Lebanon and beyond, this openness signals a closing window. Tehran's ability to project power, via precision-guided missiles or drone swarms, relies on safe havens in Syrian territory. (Read More)

Israel warns: Hamas setting conditions for second stage of ceasefire


Ahead of the transition to Phase B of US President Donald Trump's plan for rebuilding Gaza, Hamas has set a new demand: to maintain its control over Gaza while keeping its role as a political entity. Israel has sent a firm message to the US that any inclusion of Hamas in the administration of the Gaza Strip will not be accepted under any circumstances. Israel has also made it clear that it will not agree to any political or economic agreements where the murderous terror organization maintains its power within Gaza's government system.

According to Kan News, Hamas refuses to transfer its authority to the technocratic committee established to manage Gaza, preferring instead to maintain control over the territory while partially disarming. According to the information provided, Hamas has approached Arab countries and expressed its desire to advance an arrangement similar to Hezbollah’s control in Lebanon, combining political activity with military control over the territory.

On Sunday night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told attendees at the opening gala of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations that Israel had three goals in the war: "return the hostages, disarm and dismantle Hamas military capabilities, and third dismantle Hamas governing capabilities. The first has been achieved."

He stressed, "Hamas must give up its weapons. The weapon that does the most damage is the AK-47. Assault weapons. There are 60,000 such weapons, they must go." "First disarm Hamas. Second, demilitarize Gaza. We dismantled about 150 km of 500 km of tunnels. We’re giving the President’s plan a chance. It can be done the easy or hard way. We hope the easy way. Because we know the human cost of war. But that goal must be achieved. And one way or another it will be. "Gaza will not pose a threat ever again to the State of Israel," Netanyahu declared. (Source)