When eggs can hold their value better than cash, an economy has entered dangerous territory. But that is exactly where Iran is. Rapidly rising prices are forcing families to think less about what they can afford next year or next month and more about what they should buy today before their money loses more value tomorrow. “If you are an average Iranian, you know what you can buy today. You might not buy tomorrow — and by tomorrow, I mean 24 hours later,” economist Ali Dadpay told Iran International’s Eye for Iran podcast. . “This is an economy that right now saving in eggs makes more sense … than saving in tomans,” he said. An egg now costs roughly 25,000 tomans. But the story is not its dollar value. It is how quickly the purchasing power of the toman is eroding. Money put aside today may buy noticeably less within days.
You have to tell people the frustration, the anger, the feeling of inability to provide for one’s family or afford healthcare services, pay for prescription drugs,” Dadpay said. Average monthly income is below $200, by his estimate, while housing consumes an increasingly large share of household earnings. Meat and other proteins are disappearing from some families’ diets. Even damaged fruit, once bought by the poorest or given to the homeless, is increasingly becoming an option for ordinary households trying to stretch their money. “We are not approaching an economic disaster,” Dadpay said. “We are in the middle of an economic disaster.”
Economic pain, political anger
The erosion of Iran’s middle class has been underway for years, but the pressure is accelerating. Saving itself has become less about building wealth than preserving purchasing power, with gold and foreign currency used to make sure today’s earnings can still pay for necessities weeks or months from now “This is an economy that has stopped to invest in its future,” Dadpay said. The political question is what happens when years of impoverishment collide with shortages, unemployment and declining public services. Iranian authorities appear increasingly concerned about that possibility. Officials have identified gasoline, unemployment and livelihoods as potential triggers for unrest.
Judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei has threatened a tougher response to renewed protests, while leaked Basij audio has exposed concerns about further unrest. Strategic forecaster Kamran Bokhari cautioned against treating economic deterioration as evidence that political rupture is imminent. Economic misery alone does not bring down governments, particularly those with an extensive coercive apparatus. “It’s a meltdown and we’re watching it in real time,”
Bokhari said. For now, people can still adapt. Stores open, supply chains continue to function and families cut spending, change what they eat and plan around what they can afford over the next few weeks rather than the next few years. But adaptation has limits. (Ed note: Remember, with the Islamic regime, if they survive, they win. They don't care about their people, they daily hang them in the street.) (Read More)
