Monday, September 14, 2026

Could Iran’s regime collapse? Inside the Israeli assessment of Tehran’s future - analysis


If Iran attacks, there will be no way back. Israel’s response, officials have indicated, would target critical national infrastructure that a collapsing regime would not be able to rebuild.

What is really happening behind the scenes in Tehran? How close is the collapse of the ayatollah regime, what is going through Mojtaba Khamenei’s mind, and why is Israel’s defense establishment on maximum alert?

Throughout January and February, intelligence agencies closely monitored the Iranian regime’s harsh campaign of retaliation against protesters across the country. Reports collected by officials in Washington and Jerusalem documented arrests, severe torture, and a widespread pattern of citizens disappearing without a trace.

Initially, Israeli and the United States had no plan to launch another operation after Operation Rising Lion. However, as reports emerged of mass killings carried out indiscriminately against men, women, children, and the elderly, Israel’s defense establishment delivered a firm message in closed forums: “The moment for another operation will come; it is inevitable.” 

The motivation was not only the growing threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program and former supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s decision to produce thousands of ballistic missiles.

Israeli officials also cited a moral obligation not to stand aside in the face of mass killings. At the same time, they identified a strategic opportunity to advance a process that could ultimately lead to the collapse of the regime. (Read More)