The US-Iran conflict is pushing Pakistan toward direct confrontation due to its mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia. Pakistan has deployed thousands of troops and advanced jets to Saudi Arabia, risking involvement in the war. Tehran's retaliatory strikes could target Saudi installations where Pakistani personnel are stationed. Islamabad faces an existential dilemma between honoring treaty obligations and maintaining domestic stability.
As the United States continues to hit Iran, and Tehran keeps up its retaliatory actions across the Persian Gulf on Washington's installations, Pakistan finds itself poised precariously on an agonising geopolitical precipice. Islamabad's immediate priorities go beyond an effective bulwark against collateral damage. While prioritising energy imports and remittances, border security along the 900 km Iran frontier, sectarian tensions at home, and playing the potential mediator, Islamabad is getting closer to being a direct party in the war.
Such a situation upsets its stand as a neutral negotiator between Washington and Tehran. Pakistan's Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement with Saudi Arabia has already resulted in the deployment of thousands of Pakistani troops and advanced fighter jets to the Kingdom. That presence threatens to pull Islamabad directly into the crossfire as the Middle East is careening toward an all-out war. Historically, Pakistan has gone to great lengths to play the role of the regional tightrope walker, despite the political and economic volatility back home.
Sharing its western border with Iran, possessing the world's second-largest Shi'ite population, and maintaining deep, foundational ties with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan's survival depends on avoiding regional entanglements. However, the realities of modern warfare and binding security alliances have fundamentally altered this calculus. Following the American and allied strikes targeting Iranian coastal defences, alleged missile sites, and other infrastructure, Tehran and its proxy networks have increasingly struck back on nearby US installations. (Ed note: And don't forget that Pakistan has long possessed nuclear weapons in their arsenal.) (Read more)
