Israel and Lebanon appear headed toward a complex ceasefire after a new round of talks in the US. The latest agreement is supposed to be “contingent on a complete cessation of Hezbollah fire and the evacuation of all Hezbollah operatives,” according to a joint statement reported by Arab News in Saudi Arabia. The key parts of the deal are the ceasefire, the creation of “pilot zones” for the Lebanese army to take control, This is the fourth round of US-backed talks between Israel and Lebanon. In some ways, this is unprecedented because of all these long meetings between Israeli and Lebanese officials.
The US push for this has made it possible. US officials are focused on making this work. US President Donald Trump has personally sought to de-escalate fighting in Lebanon, pressuring Israel not to strike in southern Beirut. How did we get here? Israel’s increased strikes on Hezbollah between September and November 2024 led to a ceasefire deal. Then the Assad regime fell in December, depriving Hezbollah of a key ally. The rise of a new president, Joseph Aoun, and a new prime minister in Lebanon led to a drive to disarm “armed groups” in Lebanon. The government wanted to deal with Hezbollah but has been wary of doing so. The Lebanese Army has not been willing to confront the group. Instead, Beirut disarmed a few Palestinian refugee camps.
Lebanon’s failure to abide by the demands of the ceasefire led to more fighting in March 2026 after the Iran war began. This led to another ceasefire in April, but fighting continued. Israel has begun what some see as a phased approach of limited ground offensives in Lebanon over the years. The goal of the new agreement is to prod Lebanon into doing more about Hezbollah. The agreement discusses the need to prevent “any state or non-state actor” from holding Lebanon’s future hostage. This refers to Iran and Hezbollah without naming them. The lack of naming the problem has always been an issue in these previous ceasefires. If you don’t name Hezbollah, how do you get rid of it? (Ed note: We'll see if this "Dog hunts" Did anyone hear anything about Hezbollah agreeing to any of these negotiations?) (Read More)
