What was the point? On the upside, Iran has sustained the mother of all military and economic batterings. On the downside, it appears to be rapidly rebuilding its strength. And under the terms of a new "peace" deal, will it soon be aided by many billions of dollars of sanctions relief from the very president who condemned Barack Obama for doing just that? Before the war, America's deterrent was fearsome; Donald Trump was able to press Hamas into a hostage deal in Gaza with apocalyptic rhetoric alone. Who will take him seriously now? We were told "a whole civilisation would die", but with Trump at the helm, it is Western civilisation that finds itself in decline.
On February 28, the mightiest military power in history was mobilised against the evillest regime on Earth. Four months later, we have no answer to the nuclear question; no containment of Iran's proxies; no curbs on its ballistic missiles; no guarantees on Hormuz; no regime change in Tehran. This is not just a humiliation for Washington but, with China and Russia taking notes, an extremely dangerous one. The buck stops with Trump. There was a plan, we now know, to unleash Kurdish fighters from Iraq, which – despite concerns about their allegiances, numbers and effectiveness, not to mention the effect on Arab neighbours – may have made the difference.
Yet, reportedly after lobbying from Turkey's dangerous Islamist leader, the president cancelled it, leaving his weapon to go off half-cocked. He also ignored Israeli advice to continue strikes during the talks, needlessly handing the enemy breathing space. Then there was Hormuz. According to Elliott Abrams, formerly Trump's envoy on both Iran and Venezuela, whom I recently interviewed on The Brink, the president ignored his military experts and ran the war based on his gut. Thus he ignored the central concern of wargames since time immemorial and, well, hoped for the best. He got the worst. But who cares, right? He has staged a UFC fight on the White House lawn. The mullahs must be loving it.
Not only did Trump apparently disdain his advisors, he disdained his allies, too. Europe, which already jumps at its own shadow, was not brought on board – the Ayatollah's London office remains open and his ambassador in place – the Gulf states were riven with disunity and Turkey and Pakistan were handed outsized influence. This was not leadership. It was incompetence. Worst of all, those with the most to lose were the most severely betrayed. Most poignantly, the Iranian people. In January, Trump posted "Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! ... HELP IS ON ITS WAY". Some might well have sacrificed their lives in response. Yesterday, the president remarked that he "never cared about regime change". Thanks for that.
Secondly, Israel. The Jewish state has suffered greatly from the pernicious narrative that Benjamin Netanyahu led Trump into this war by the nose. The Iranian regime has masterfully exploited this.
At the most sensitive moments in the talks, their proxy, Hezbollah, has provoked Israel into military responses, infuriating the gullible Trump, who has lambasted Netanyahu as a "difficult guy" who has "no f---ing judgment". Tehran is driving a wedge between the allies and the president can't see it. So they continue. Overnight, Hezbollah fired on Israeli civilians. How will Trump react when Jerusalem retaliates? Increasingly, by pinning the blame on Bibi and taking the side of Iran. (Source)
Secondly, Israel. The Jewish state has suffered greatly from the pernicious narrative that Benjamin Netanyahu led Trump into this war by the nose. The Iranian regime has masterfully exploited this.
At the most sensitive moments in the talks, their proxy, Hezbollah, has provoked Israel into military responses, infuriating the gullible Trump, who has lambasted Netanyahu as a "difficult guy" who has "no f---ing judgment". Tehran is driving a wedge between the allies and the president can't see it. So they continue. Overnight, Hezbollah fired on Israeli civilians. How will Trump react when Jerusalem retaliates? Increasingly, by pinning the blame on Bibi and taking the side of Iran. (Source)
