Israel's security establishment believes the Lebanese front must not be connected to Iran and oppose an IDF withdrawal. At the same time, officials warn that despite progress in talks between Washington and Tehran, Israel must formulate a new strategy on Iran and prepare for the possibility that it will exploit the coming months to advance its nuclear program. The Israeli security establishment does not know exactly what the details are of the emerging deal between the US and Iran, but security officials say now is the time to minimize the damage and try to influence the final agreement as much as possible during the 60 days in which it will be discussed. As for the Lebanese front, Israel's main task now is to try to separate Iran from Lebanon as much as possible, despite Iran's clear attempts to reconnect the two.
The way to do this, security officials believe, is through firm opposition to an IDF withdrawal back to the international border. There is near unanimity among Israel's political and security leadership regarding the need to keep the IDF deployed along the yellow line, at least in order to protect residents of the north. At the same time, the view at the top of the security establishment is that Israel should respond harshly, including with another strike in Dahiyeh, to any launch toward the State of Israel, even at the cost of another confrontation with Iran and American displeasure.
As of now, the soldiers positioned beyond the border line have not received new instructions, and they are continuing to destroy terrorist infrastructure and defend themselves against threats when necessary. At the same time, the IDF is also preparing for the possibility that Israel's political echelon will issue different instructions. Likewise, as has been evident over the past three days (as of the time of writing), Hezbollah is not firing at the State of Israel, and its forces are not advancing and are focusing on defending themselves. Ultimately, the test will be one of action, meaning whether Hezbollah fires at the State of Israel and what Israel does in response. (Read More)
