Israel and the United States are in constant contact right now, and the message from Jerusalem is unmistakable: Hezbollah cannot be folded into a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding as a protected entity. Any framework that does not explicitly address what sits on Israel's northern border is not a peace agreement. It is a diplomatic document wrapped around a loaded gun.
The argument is not complicated, though its implications are enormous. Hezbollah is not an independent Lebanese political actor with a militia problem. It is an Iranian force-projection asset, armed, funded, trained, and operationally directed through the IRGC's Quds Force. Its estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles are not Lebanese deterrence. They are Iranian deterrence, positioned inside Lebanon and pointed at Tel Aviv, Haifa, and every population center in between.
This is the core of what Jay, founder of Open Source Intel (OSINT613) and one of the most closely watched analysts covering the Middle East, has been pressing his 1.2 million followers to understand. Jay, who has been monitoring regional military and geopolitical developments since launching OSINT613 in the immediate aftermath of October 7, put it in terms that cut through the diplomatic fog. (Read More)
