CNN also reported that the US intelligence community has warned that the likely alternative leadership could be even more problematic. If the Iranian regime fell, the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would likely seize control, at least temporarily, according to sources with knowledge of the situation. “The IRGC is definitely prominent and functions above the standard military bureaucracy, but it is hard to predict exactly what would happen in a regime collapse scenario," said one source familiar with recent US intelligence reports.
The Trump administration’s understanding of the IRGC's internal hierarchy remains limited following the elimination of Iran's most powerful military commander, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, during Trump’s first term. In contrast, US intelligence had a much clearer understanding of Venezuela's power structure before its capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Several sources have suggested that there was a critical window of opportunity for military strikes several weeks ago when Iran's protests were at their height. At that time, US military action could have potentially tipped the balance in favor of the opposition, providing a momentum boost for Iranians seeking to overthrow their government. However, these sources now question whether Trump “missed the moment" and whether military action now would be as effective. (Read More)
