In Tehran, some analysts cautioned that the military moves could signal genuine escalation rather than routine pressure. Political analyst Mohammad Soltaninejad told Entekhab: “If the negotiations fail or the US position changes—as happened before the 12-day war and in the middle of negotiations—it is possible that war could break out.” Jalal Sadatian, a former Iranian ambassador to the United Kingdom, said in an interview with ILNA that war remains an unattractive option for regional states, particularly given the risk of US bases in those countries being targeted.
“The balance is still tilted somewhat more toward negotiation than toward war,” he said, arguing that Trump appears to be “more focused on threats and exercising pressure.” The military buildup follows the second round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, which ended Tuesday in Geneva without tangible results. Cautious optimism expressed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has not translated into broad confidence in Tehran. Financial markets have reacted nervously. Iran’s currency weakened nearly one percent in a single day, with the dollar rising toward 1,630,000 rials, reflecting broader concerns about the risk of escalation. (Read More)
