As Iran weakens, attention turns to possible revolt from within

Public protests in Iran have been crushed and its society has been battered, but the cracks at the top of the regime are growing. Senior commanders are amassing wealth in the West, their children hold foreign citizenship, and a scenario of an internal plot, backed by Western powers, could make a large-scale war unnecessary. Many Israelis are familiar with the story from the Book of Esther, in which Mordechai learns that two officials in the Persian king's court, Bigthan and Teresh, are plotting to assassinate him. Mordechai alerts Esther and the king, and the two conspirators are executed for their scheme.

That episode ended well, and the Persian king survived. But Iranian history is rife with cases in which sons or close associates rose up against rulers, murdered them or at least removed them from the throne through conspiracies and palace plots. Some rulers, fearing such betrayals, even killed their own sons and confidants preemptively, suspecting they might turn against them.

Today, with the Iranian regime widely seen as far weaker than in previous years and repeatedly entangled in wars that sap its strength, the likelihood of an internal conspiracy by interested parties or figures within the centers of power is increasing. These include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military and the political elite. For now, they appear united against what they define as the internal enemy: the public, which took to the streets in protest in an effort to topple the regime and install an alternative government. Those protests failed to endanger the regime, largely due to brutal repression and the killing of demonstrators. (Read More)