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Saturday, February 14, 2026

A SUMMARY OF THE 2025 ANNUAL REPORTS

A MESSAGE TO THE PUBLIC: 

The Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds report on the current and projected financial status of the two programs each year. This document summarizes the findings of the 2025 reports. As in prior years, we found that the Social Security and Medicare programs both continue to face significant financing issues. The non-health-specific intermediate (best estimate) assumptions for these reports were set in December 2024. The Trustees will continue to monitor developments, reevaluate the assumptions, and modify the projections in later reports. Based on our best estimates, this year's reports show that: 

• The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from last year’s report. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of total scheduled benefits.

• The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund is projected to be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits through at least 2099, the last year of this report’s projection period. Last year’s report projected that the DI Trust Fund would be able to pay scheduled benefits through at least 2098, the last year of that report’s projection period.

• If the OASI Trust Fund and the DI Trust Fund projections were combined, the resulting projected fund (designated OASDI) would be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2034, one year earlier than reported last year. At that time, the projected fund’s reserves would become depleted, and continuing total fund income would be sufficient to pay 81 percent of scheduled benefits. (The two funds could not actually be combined unless there were a change in the law, but the combined projection of the two funds is frequently used to indicate the overall status of the Social Security program.) 

• Although the OASI Trust Fund depletion year remains the same, both the OASI and OASDI depletion dates advanced by about 3 calendar quarters, relative to last year’s projection.


• The Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, three years earlier than reported last year. At that point, that fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 89 percent of total scheduled benefits.

• The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund is adequately financed into the indefinite future because, unlike the other trust funds, its main financing sources—enrolled beneficiary premiums and the associated federal contributions from the Treasury—are automatically adjusted each year to cover costs for the upcoming year. Although the financing is assured, the rapidly rising SMI costs have been placing steadily increasing demands on beneficiaries and general taxpayers. (Ed note: I had thought that SSA would begin 'shortpaying' by 2029 and 'bankrupt' by 2031. A very well explained article with lots of charts, and it's very long. I guess we may have 2 more years.) (Read More)