Iranian affairs researcher Dr. Raz Zimmt told Persian radio network Radio Farda on Monday that he does not foresee an imminent Israeli strike against Iran. "Looking at the two primary potential targets for Israeli attack – the nuclear issue and ballistic missiles," he stated in the interview. Regarding the nuclear file, nothing significant has developed. Construction continues at several Iranian installations, but nothing connected to uranium enrichment or weapons manufacturing – at least from what I can determine," Zimmt explained. "On the ballistic missile front, yes, certain improvements have materialized since June, but the situation hasn't reached the threshold where Israel would opt to strike. My assessment suggests Iran has likely recovered to somewhere near its pre-war missile inventory – possibly even below that figure."
For years, Islamic Republic Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has prevented uranium enrichment to weapons-grade 90% purity and blocked development of miniaturized nuclear warheads capable of ballistic missile delivery. A report published two weeks ago by Italian research institute ISPI, drawing on Tehran sources, revealed that Khamenei authorized miniaturized nuclear warhead development for ballistic missiles last October – while continuing to withhold approval for 90% enrichment. Meanwhile, intelligence suggests a clandestine enrichment program operates at an undeclared location, beyond International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reporting. Since Operation Rising Lion in June, the IAEA has faced severely restricted access to nuclear facilities.
Zimmt addressed the ballistic missile dimension as well. "This isn't purely a numbers game – missile characteristics matter enormously. How vulnerable are they to interception? Do they use solid fuel? What precision can they achieve? Production volume tells only part of the story. But my fundamental point stands – I don't perceive this as demanding immediate action. What troubles me more is that Iran's deteriorating domestic conditions heighten the danger of catastrophic misjudgment."
The senior researcher offered this analysis notwithstanding last week's meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump, where they discussed Iran extensively. "The topic definitely arose, but establishing red lines was the critical question – defining precisely what conditions would trigger an Israeli or American military response if Iran persists in capability restoration. We haven't arrived at a juncture where Israel considers striking now an imperative." (Read More)
