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Senior officials and analysts assess that the summer war between Iran and Israel solved nothing, with Tehran now planning a massive 2,000-missile attack and Jerusalem viewing preemption as an option to counter Iran’s surging nuclear program.
Following a destructive 12-day war this summer that ultimately settled nothing, senior officials and security analysts now view another large-scale war between Israel and Iran as an inevitability, not a possibility. The New York Times reports that both nations are actively preparing for a sequel, with Tehran rapidly increasing its missile production and Jerusalem focused on what it considers the enduring threat of Iran's nuclear program.
Iran’s new strategic gamble is sheer volume. According to Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, Tehran is aiming for around-the-clock production to launch a single wave of roughly 2,000 missiles to overwhelm Israel's sophisticated air defenses. During the June war, Iran launched approximately 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000–1,100 drones. While most were intercepted, these salvos still resulted in 28 deaths and sent 3,238 people to hospitals in Israel. On the Iranian side, casualties were also high, with the government acknowledging 900–1,060 deaths, while an independent monitor placed the toll nearer 1,190.
The strategic picture remains highly unstable, centered on Iran's nuclear material. Before the summer war, Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium had surged, and it remains a red line for both the US and Israel. The IAEA reported in mid-May that Iran held 408.6 kg of 60% enriched uranium and over 9,200 kg total enriched uranium, quantities far exceeding any credible civilian need. Independent analysis suggests this material is sufficient for roughly ten nuclear devices if further enriched. Post-June, Tehran has restricted international inspectors and pushed its work deeper underground, exacerbating uncertainty and risk. (Read More)
Iran’s new strategic gamble is sheer volume. According to Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, Tehran is aiming for around-the-clock production to launch a single wave of roughly 2,000 missiles to overwhelm Israel's sophisticated air defenses. During the June war, Iran launched approximately 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000–1,100 drones. While most were intercepted, these salvos still resulted in 28 deaths and sent 3,238 people to hospitals in Israel. On the Iranian side, casualties were also high, with the government acknowledging 900–1,060 deaths, while an independent monitor placed the toll nearer 1,190.
The strategic picture remains highly unstable, centered on Iran's nuclear material. Before the summer war, Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium had surged, and it remains a red line for both the US and Israel. The IAEA reported in mid-May that Iran held 408.6 kg of 60% enriched uranium and over 9,200 kg total enriched uranium, quantities far exceeding any credible civilian need. Independent analysis suggests this material is sufficient for roughly ten nuclear devices if further enriched. Post-June, Tehran has restricted international inspectors and pushed its work deeper underground, exacerbating uncertainty and risk. (Read More)
