Even without US go ahead: How Israel might strike Iran’s nuclear sites

Analysis: Israel is reassessing military options following regional shifts and renewed US engagement, with three possible scenarios: a solo strike, a coordinated operation with U.S. support or a joint campaign with Western allies. Two parallel developments last November — one in Syria, the other in Washington — have reignited Israel’s long-standing threat to strike Iran’s nuclear program. As Israeli defense officials reassess their options, three distinct scenarios are emerging for how such a mission might unfold.

The first development was the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which allowed the Israeli Air Force to destroy much of Syria’s sophisticated and densely deployed air defense network. The operation opened a strategic corridor to Iran that had previously been considered too dangerous for Israeli warplanes.

The second was Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Within weeks, Trump unfroze critical American military aid to Israel, including munitions that had been withheld by the Biden administration. He also launched a new diplomatic initiative aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions — a dramatic shift nearly a decade after he withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, with strong encouragement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

While Trump has not given Israel a “green light” for a strike, the renewed momentum has brought the prospect of military action back into focus. Israeli leaders are reportedly weighing three primary scenarios: Over the past year, Israel has shown it can reach deep into Iranian territory, striking strategic military targets even in the country’s remote eastern regions. These missions have proven Israel’s operational reach and exposed weaknesses in Iran’s defenses. (Read more)