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Sunday, May 25, 2025

Iranian Slip-Up Reveals Key Information on Nuclear Site’s Air Defences: How Vulnerable is Natanz to Western Attacks?

The publication of a a two-second clip of an Iranian command centre by state media sources has reportedly resulted in an operational security failure, and provided valuable information to both analysts and potential attackers regarding the air defences in place around one of the country’s most sensitive targets, the Natanz nuclear facility. Commenting on the new information, researcher with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Sam Lair, stated the clip provided “the clearest look that we’ve had for air defences for nuclear sites,” and provided a “remarkable” amount of data on defences that were previously kept tightly secret.

Iran’s lack of modern combat aircraft, or of any kind of airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, has left the country very heavily reliant on its network of ground based radars and surface-to-air missile systems to protect its airspace, with a number of sophisticated systems having been developed domestically while others have been procured from Russia. Lair and his associates were able to geolocate the radars protecting Natanz, building up a picture of four radars including a local Najm 804 radar developed for the Khordad 15 long range surface-to-air missile system, a smaller radars associated with the Russian Tor short ranged anti-missile system, and two derivatives of the Soviet P-12 radar - a system that saw extensive use during the Vietnam War.

The Khordad 15 air defence system at the centre of the Natanz facility’s defense was unveiled in June 2019, and has a 120 kilometre engagement range using Sayyad 3 surface-to-air missiles. It can reportedly track stealth targets at ranges of up to 45 kilometres, although this range could potentially be extended should the system be networked with other assets. The system has been compared to the Russian S-350 in its role and capabilities, supporting Iran’s longer ranged Bavar 373, S-300PMU-2, and S-200 air defence systems. Iranian air defences are expected to continue to be strengthened by large scale production of systems like the Khordad 15 and Bavar 373, as well as by the procurement of Russian Su-35 fighters before the end of the year. (Read More)