What the Trump administration is looking for in a new nuclear deal with Iran is still hazy, but based on envoy Steve Witkoff’s interview with Fox News, it seems that the focuses are limiting uranium enrichment and broader IAEA verification.It is possible that this broader verification could include first-time access to the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missile arsenal. If Trump can achieve these two goals, they would potentially be sizable wins, and in some ways could be improvements on the O bama-era 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal.
At the same time, they would likely fall far short of ending the nuclear threat from Tehran. More than that, given the progress that Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made with his nuclear program since 2018, they might still leave a far more dangerous Iranian nuclear threat than what existed after Obama’s deal. The bedrock of the JCPOA was that Iran:
1) cut its centrifuge use for enriching uranium by about 75% from close to 20,000 old centrifuges to close to 5,000; 2) ship out its 20% and above-5% enriched uranium stock to Russia (at the time potentially enough for 10 nuclear weapons); 3) commit to staying at less than one third of a nuclear weapon’s worth of low enriched uranium for 10-15 years (depending on how its calculated); and 4) allow the IAEA extensive access to its declared nuclear facilities.
Centrifuges: If Iran’s uranium enrichment would be limited to the same levels this time, it would require greater concessions from Tehran because they now possess 13,355 advanced centrifuges of which 1,660 are IR-6 ones installed at Fordow. (Read More)
