Turkey is deepening its military and political foothold in northern and central Syria, raising significant concerns over the long-term consequences of Ankara's ambitions for regional influence and control. From the construction of a military base to growing engagement with the Syrian Islamist-leaning regime and a steady flow of Turkish armored vehicles into the area, Israel must now be on the lookout for threats that emanate from Sunni Turkey in a country dominated by Shi'ite Iran for many years under the previous Assad regime.
Israel's recent series of steps in southern Syria, including ground and air operations, the setting up of multiple military posts on the Syrian side of the demilitarized zone, and the setting up of an alliance with the southern Syrian Druze population, appear designed to prevent Turkish-backed Sunni fundamentalists--or Turkish forces themselves--from moving south beyond Damascus. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a prominent expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JNS on Wednesday that there are multiple warning signs. "After the fall of Assad, we know that Turkey replaced Russia as the dominant player in Syria," said Yanarocak. "When we speak about today's Syrian regime, it is thanks to Turkey, due to Turkish changes and Turkish strategy."
Citing a recent uptick in Turkish involvement, Yanarocak emphasized that "the Turkish intelligence organization, then the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and finally the president of Turkey met with al-Joulani [the new 'interim' Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who headed Ha'at Tahrir al-Sham rebel coalition that overthrew the Assad regime]. And we actually saw the Turkish infiltration--both on the ministerial and military levels." Amid unconfirmed reports that Turkey was planning to build a new military base in Palmyra in central Syria, the IDF announced on March 25 that it had struck Syrian military bases in the area, including the T4 Airbase. The message to Turkey appears to have been, "Please don't come," said Yanarocak. (Read More)
