“History won’t end after a strike on Iran,” says a foreign diplomat. His brief statement effectively summarizes numerous discussions and complex dilemmas faced by many people in multiple countries right now. On one hand, action against Iran isn’t a question of if, simply because no other option remains. On the other hand, we’re not talking about one bombing run and we’re done, as the military challenge is substantial with implications and effects far beyond a localized confrontation between Israel and Iran.
Let’s start with the conclusion: Very little time remains to address Iran’s nuclear program. The Islamic Republic is placing its underground nuclear infrastructure so deep that even the American bunker-busting bomb will eventually be unable to penetrate it. “It will be so deep that conventional weapons won’t be able to do the job,” in the diplomat’s words.
Meanwhile, the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency determined that, “if Iran decides to produce weapons-grade uranium [90% enrichment] instead of [the current] 60%, it could do so quickly … [and create] enough stockpile to produce four to five nuclear weapons within about one month,” as summarized by the Institute for Science and International Security based on the IAEA findings. As is widely known, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is scattered throughout the vast country. This means “hit and run” scenarios involving a small number of aircraft, like those executed by the Israeli Air Force in Iraq in 1981 or Syria in 2007, are irrelevant. Against multiple sites, some of which are underground, many more aircraft would be needed, possibly in multiple waves of attacks. (Read More)
