As both distant and recent history have taught us, we must never assume that we "understand better than the players around us" what they think or feel. We must remain faithful to the classic intelligence principle: "Observe the enemy’s means and capabilities, and their actions, rather than trying to guess their intentions." 1. Israel is currently emerging from one of the longest and most expensive military efforts in its history.
2. Following US President Donald Trump’s speech and his expected explicitly pro-Israel policies, Israel is likely to strengthen and rebuild itself in the foreseeable future. Additionally, following the surprise attack on October 7, Israel is increasing its military forces and defense budget, preparing for future security threats — primarily the Iranian nuclear threat (especially through the Air Force), as well as the Turkish and Egyptian threats. In this regard, this may be a unique strategic window for adversaries to attack while Israel appears weakened.
3. Egypt is a vast Sunni Muslim country that, although officially at peace with Israel, maintains a cold peace. Antisemitism, incitement, and hate speech on Egyptian television and in the streets are among the highest in the world. The peace treaty has been repeatedly violated for years, most notably through the increasing presence of Egyptian forces deep in the Sinai Peninsula and large-scale military infrastructure buildup. The military preparations are too extensive to be purely defensive and strongly suggest preparations for a military confrontation with Israel. (Read More)
