Thursday, December 19, 2024

US intel wrongly envisioned catastrophic outcome if IDF escalated against Hezbollah

WASHINGTON — US intelligence assessments before Israel escalated its conflict against the Lebanese Hezbollah terror group in September said that such a move risked sparking an all-out war in which hundreds — if not thousands — of Israelis would be killed, three US officials and one Israeli official told The Times of Israel this week.

The assessments relied heavily on similar ones crafted by Israel’s own intelligence community, the US officials said, acknowledging that both countries’ assessments proved wildly inaccurate within days, as the IDF methodically took out much of Hezbollah’s missile and drone capabilities, dismantled its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, picked off almost every member of its senior leadership and killed or wounded thousands of operatives — many of them in audacious mass detonations of the terror group’s communication devices.

Hezbollah did manage to expand the range of its rocket and drone launches, disrupting life for tens of thousands of citizens in parts of Israel that had been free of such threats over the past year. Fifty-seven Israeli soldiers and 21 civilians were killed during the roughly two-month escalation that ensued.   (Read More)