#1. Superior results: By definition, a surprise Israeli attack minimizes the damage Hezbollah can cause before it is destroyed. In sharp contrast, if our forces only implement our battle plans after Hezbollah opts to compel us to act, Hezbollah will be the party geared to maximize damage.
#2. War not involving Iran and others: A surprise Israeli attack buys the Jewish State precious time to benefit from carrying out operations in a single-arena or at most dual-arena (Lebanon and Gaza) conflict rather than the treacherously broad multi-arena conflict we could very well face if we allow Hezbollah to decide when the conflict starts.
#3. Diplomacy failed Hezbollah invasion: The world knows that we haven't acted to forcibly remove the Hezbollah forces now deployed on our side of the northern border as we fear that Hezbollah will respond by plunging us into a full scale war. So its either war or diplomacy and the international authorities have already made it crystal clear that they won't do anything to actually resolve the situation.
#4. IAF reservists still battle ready: Reserve pilots are among key elements of Israel's military strength whose "ready" status hinges on their ongoing participation in "volunteer" reserve duty training activity. As of today reserve pilots have only threatened to forfeit their "battle ready" status by boycotting "volunteer" reserve duty training activity in protest of judicial reform. There is no telling what will happen tomorrow.
#5. World focus on other fronts gives Israel time: There is so much going on in the rest of the world that we could benefit by a particularly long "window of opportunity" before facing pressure to stop.
#6. Time is not on our side: While we rush to add such gizmos to our portfolio as revolutionary lasers and various platforms, our enemies are also building up their capabilities at a breakneck pace. This is hardly the time for analysis which only considers what we are working on
I have no illusions. We are talking about a COSTLY war in which civilians save their own lives by following instructions because we don't have the resources to intercept rockets bound for residential areas.
But the cost of taking our destiny into our own hands is dwarfed by the devastation we may face if we allow Hezbollah and their Iranian bosses to call the shots.
Dr. Aaron Lerner is head of IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis, since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations.
