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Wednesday, March 1, 2023

If Iran thinks Israel can’t launch a war, does its calculous change? - analysis

Iranian pro-regime media is closely following developments in Israel, particularly reports about Israel-Iran tensions. On Tuesday Iran’s Fars News reported that “Israel does not have the ability to take military action against Iran.”

Iran ascribed this report to “Zionist media” and was ostensibly re-reporting based on other regional media, but the overall length of the Iranian report indicates that Iran wants to closely analyze the current tensions with Israel. 

Iran’s media has highlighted claims that Israel’s “missile depot” has been “emptied” during recent conflicts with the “Palestinian resistance.” The report emphasized that “Israel is not ready to attack Iran.”

If Iran thinks that Israel is not in a position to attack, will that change the Tehran regime’s calculations and policies?

This is a key question and it is worth looking at what issues the regime is currently focused on.

First of all, Iran believes that current issues in Israel make it more complex for Israel to confront Iran.  READ MORE