Wednesday, April 6, 2022

Israel concerned over Iranian takeover of Syrian Golan

With the end of Syria's civil war, the IDF has identified a new threat brought about by the demographic change and significant growth of the Alawite and Shiite population in Syria.

According to Israel Hayom, the concern is that Iran and Hezbollah will utilize the current situation to enlist supporters and activists from among the Shiite population, similar to what they have done in Lebanon.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who won the decade-long civil war, is now trying to regain complete independence for his country.

In the past one-and-a-half years, Assad seems to have been "born again": He controls over 60% of the original territory he had prior to 2011, with the rest of the area split between the Turks, Kurds (with US support), and rebels, who still have a significant stronghold in Idlib.

In addition to the territorial change, the war brought with it a significant demographic change. In 2011, prior to the Syrian civil war, Syria numbered 21.3 million citizens, 59% of whom were Sunni, 11% of whom were Alawite, and just 4% of whom were Shiite. Today, Syria's population numbers around 10 million, with Shiites representing 10% and Alawites 30%.

In other words, if ten years ago the Shiites and Alawites comprised 15% of Syria's population, today they represent 40% of the population, and their representation is only expected to increase.