Thursday, November 18, 2021

US floats idea of interim Iran nuclear deal

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan raised with his Israeli counterpart the idea of an interim agreement with Iran to buy more time for nuclear negotiations, three Israeli and US. sources told Barak Ravid of Axios on Wednesday.

According to the report, the idea is only preliminary, and the Biden administration continues to insist that the full 2015 nuclear deal be restored. However, with nuclear talks set to resume in Vienna on November 29, it provides a window into at least some of the thinking inside the administration.

In recent weeks, according to Ravid, Sullivan raised the idea of an interim deal while discussing next steps on the Iranian nuclear file with his counterpart Eyal Hulata.

Two American sources familiar with the call said the two were just "brainstorming" and that Sullivan was passing along an idea put forward by one of America's European allies.

The rationale for an interim deal is that Iran's dramatic nuclear advances have put Tehran very close to the uranium enrichment levels needed for a nuclear weapon.

According to the US sources, the idea was that in exchange for a freeze from Iran (for example, on enriching uranium to 60%), the US and its allies could release some frozen Iranian funds or provide sanctions waivers on humanitarian goods.

Hulata told Sullivan he thought it was not a good idea and stressed the Israeli concern that any interim deal will become a permanent agreement that allows Iran to maintain its nuclear infrastructure and uranium stockpile, an Israeli official said.

In another call with Sullivan on Tuesday, Hulata also stressed that the US and its European allies must push for a censure resolution against Iran in next week's meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, a source familiar with the conversations said.

Such a move to censure Iran would come just days before nuclear talks are set to resume.

A spokesperson for the Israeli National Security Council said details of this story were inaccurate, but would not specify which details and did not deny that the idea of an interim deal had been discussed.

Meanwhile, noted Ravid, US Iran envoy Rob Malley visited Israel this week and met with Hulata as well as with Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, both of whom contended that the only way to get Iran back to the 2015 deal was to increase rather than loosen the pressure, according to a senior Israeli official.

Malley made clear that the Biden administration also thinks more pressure on Iran is needed. The main difference is over the timing of further steps against Iran, the official said.

The US approach is to go to Vienna in good faith and see what Iran proposes, a US source familiar with the administration policy said.

If the Iranians make extreme demands, it will then be possible for the US to get other world powers including Russia and China to increase the pressure, the source contended.

Iran has gradually scaled back its compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal it signed with world powers in response to former US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement in May of 2018.

The previous Iranian government, headed by former President Hassan Rouhani, had been holding indirect talks with the Biden administration on a return to the agreement.

The negotiations were adjourned on June 20, two days after Ebrahim Raisi won Iran's presidential election.

Two weeks ago, an Iranian diplomat said that the negotiations will restart November 29 in Vienna.

A spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry later demanded that the US lift sanctions imposed on Iran as part of the nuclear talks and also reassure Iran it will not abandon the deal again.