On June 28, 1914, Garvilo Princip, a Serbian Nationalist, assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria in the hope of somehow causing Austria to cede the areas of Bosnia/Kosovo to Russian Orthodox Serbia. Instead, the assassination set off a concatenation of events that inexorably led to World War I. The various post-assassination national cross-demands and ultimatums triggered various mutual defense treaties which accelerated the conflict like a row of cascading falling dominos.
Today, in October 2020, the Russian Orthodox Armenia is locked in a Turkish fueled proto-all-out-war with Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan over the disputed areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. In what is a mutual defense treaty similar to NATO, Russia is bound under the “Collective Security Treaty Organization” (CSTO Treaty) mutual defense treaty with Armenia.
So, if Armenia triggers the defense treaty, Russia will defend Armenia, and by necessity confront NATO member Turkey, Azerbaijan’s principal ally.
If the CSTO Treaty is invoked, we will be one step from World War 3:
Turkey’s closing the Straits (connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea) to Russia under the Montreux Convention [1] is a trigger, for if Turkey blocks Russia from re-supplying its forces in Syria, there is no telling how Russia might escalate from there.
The simple solution, and possibly the only solution, to avoid boxing Russia into escalating into violence with Turkey through the closure of the Straits, would be to assure Russia that the United States will continue to supply and militarily support Russia in Syria so as to enable a Syrian status quo ante.
Why would the United States want to support Russia in Syria? First, despite some friction, Russia and the US have almost the exact strategic interests in Syria. Both want a secularist, non-Iranian, non-Turkish, non-hostile to Israel, country where an Islamic Caliphate cannot regenerate itself. READ MORE http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/288364
