Over the weekend, an anonymous US official warned in a Reuters article that Iran could have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2020.
For good measure, the anonymous US official tossed in the words “North Korea,” without offering any evidence.To be clear, Iran in the long-term absolutely is a nuclear threat and it is critical that the US and Israel not take their eye off the ball.However, every Israeli intelligence agency, from the Mossad to the IDF, has made it clear to The Jerusalem Post that there is no expectation of an Iranian nuclear weapon in 2020 – and likely not in the immediate future after that.Earlier in 2020, there was a real worry that the Islamic Republic might break out to a nuclear bomb sometime this year, but that concern in the near term has passed.It might have been possible if Iran had not halted its nuclear violations in May.It might have been possible if Iran had pushed to enrich uranium at 20% or 60% as it had threatened, and not carefully kept its uranium enrichment at around 5%, far away from weaponization.