What are Hezbollah's calculations, 90 days into war on Israel? - analysis

For the past 90 days of the war, Hezbollah got used to playing fiddle. After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, Hezbollah began to carry out attacks on Israel, and while there were initial concerns in the region and Washington that this could escalate, Hezbollah appeared to prefer daily small attacks to a larger war; a US aircraft carrier parked in the Mediterranean may have made it think twice.

This aircraft carrier is now heading away, allowing Hezbollah to feel more empowered in its decisions; it has to fish or cut bait. The problem with Hezbollah is that it has become too big in recent years. Not only does it occupy a swath of Lebanon and hold Lebanese politics hostage, but it is so powerful that Iran fears “losing” it in a war, like an advanced piece on a chess board, where you keep sending more pieces to protect it, lest that piece end up being lost in some complex sacrifice. Iran doesn’t want to sacrifice Hezbollah, yet it also wants Hezbollah to be a threat to Israel.

So far, Hezbollah has succeeded in driving some 80,000 Israelis from their homes on the northern border; this is unprecedented – never in history did Israel evacuate the whole border. Hezbollah can pretend it has won, but it has also lost around 140 or more of its fighters. Hezbollah terrorists are not a rabble. It’s not like the poor Iranian recruits from Afghanistan – the Fetimiyoun – whom Iran sent as cannon fodder to Syria. Hezbollah, rather, is used to being the senior partner among all of Iran’s proxies. READ MORE