Four Mideast trend lines to watch in 2022

As 2022 begins, the Middle East strategic picture is in a state of flux and change. Stable and long-held assumptions about the region – its dynamics, its main players and its power structures – are being challenged.

So what are the main points of friction? Here are four emergent trend lines worth watching.

In Israel, it became customary in recent years to identify a number of rival camps operating against one another in the Middle East. Four main blocs or alliances were identified.

These were: 1. the Iranians and their allies and proxies; 2. a loose gathering of US-aligned countries, including Israel, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and a number of smaller players; 3. a gathering of countries and movements identified with conservative Sunni political Islam, including Turkey, Qatar, the Government of National Accord in Libya and the Hamas enclave in Gaza; and 4. the regional networks of Salafi jihadi political Islam – namely, al-Qaeda and Islamic State.

With the start of 2022, however, it is clear that this picture no longer conforms in its entirety to the observable dynamics of the region. What has changed? READ MORE