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Thursday, July 16, 2026

Why lessons learned on October 7 prevent Israeli withdrawal from Syria - analysis


When Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa swept into power and ousted Bashar Assad in December 2024, Israel quickly implemented policies born of the lessons learned from October 7. The first was to act before threats metastasize rather than after. The second was never again to let those who want to murder you encamp right on the border. As a result, the IDF rapidly entered Syria, destroyed planes, helicopters, naval vessels, missiles, chemical weapons depots, air bases, and ports belonging to the Assad regime before they could fall into the hands of jihadist groups.

It also carved out a buffer zone inside southern Syria designed to keep forces hostile to Israel from establishing themselves within easy striking distance of communities on the Golan Heights. Again, the trauma of October 7 looms large. This buffer zone, together with the ones Israel has created inside Gaza and southern Lebanon, is now increasingly viewed in Washington as a problem that needs to be solved.

US President Donald Trump gave voice to that sentiment during a phone call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, first reported by Axios, in which he reportedly urged Israel to begin withdrawing from southern Syria. “They don’t want you there. You should redeploy,” Trump reportedly told Netanyahu. Again, he sees Israel’s presence in Syria as a problem. Israel sees it as a solution.

With the exception of a handful of far-right activists who dream of establishing settlements across the border, Israel has no territorial ambitions in southern Syria. The one exception is Mount Hermon, whose strategic importance is so overwhelming that Israeli leaders have made clear they have little intention of relinquishing it. The same is not necessarily true regarding the rest of the buffer zone. The question has never really been whether Israel will eventually leave, but under what conditions. (Ed note: What al-Sharaa really wants is for Israel to leave the buffer zone, give back the Golan Heights, and for Israel to return to the 1967 border lines. All demands are impossible for Israel, and President Trump should know better. Always keep one eye on the state of Syria.)   (Read More)