Jerusalem supported the war. It had almost no seat at the table. Now it must decide how hard to push back against a deal it didn't shape. When the United States and Iran went to war earlier this year, Israel was a partner. When they sat down to negotiate a way out, Israel was largely not in the room. That gap, between Israel's centrality to the conflict and its near-total exclusion from the diplomatic process, now defines Jerusalem's uncomfortable position as a tentative 60-day framework deal takes shape between Washington and Tehran.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday he had spoken with Trump the previous evening, and that the two agreed "any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger" - meaning the dismantling of enrichment sites and the removal of highly enriched uranium from Iranian soil. Trump reaffirmed Israel's right to defend itself "on every front, including Lebanon," Netanyahu added. The statement was carefully worded, supportive of the process, firm on the destination. But behind it lies a deep unease that Israeli officials have been less careful to conceal.
A senior Israeli official, speaking without authorization to do so publicly, called the emerging agreement "bad." Israel's core fear, the official indicated, is that the deal will ultimately deliver only its first half, Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions ease, oil flows again, while the far harder second half, curbing Iran's nuclear program, simply never arrives. It is a fear with historical resonance. Israeli governments have watched international agreements with Iran expire, collapse, or be circumvented before. The memory is acute.
Despite the deal's profound implications for Israel, negotiations have reportedly been conducted with near-total exclusion of Jerusalem. Israel will not officially be party to whatever agreement emerges, yet will effectively be bound by it — limited in what it can achieve militarily without U.S. participation, and with Netanyahu unlikely to be seen torpedoing the president's deal-making on such weighty matters. That constraint is the central paradox Israel faces. It cannot easily say no to Trump. It cannot easily say yes to a deal that may leave Iran's nuclear infrastructure intact. (Read More)
