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Friday, January 30, 2026

The Point of No Return: Why Israel Believes the American Armada is Now Unstoppable

Israeli officials believe President Trump is set to order a limited military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic missiles, recognizing that regime change through air power alone is unrealistic. Heightened US deployments signal the point of no return has passed, raising fears of Iranian retaliation directly against Israel. Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate as Israeli leaders anticipate a possible US military operation against Iran, though assessments indicate any action will be limited in scope and unlikely to result in the fall of the Islamic Republic regime.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a narrow security consultation Thursday evening, where discussions centered on the potential for American strikes amid ongoing buildup of US forces in the region. Israeli officials assess that President Donald Trump has shifted away from pursuing full regime change, concluding that no feasible military operation at this stage could achieve that outcome, particularly given the regime's success in suppressing widespread protests. A Trump post on Truth Social, combined with other indicators, reinforces this view in Jerusalem, where senior figures note that the president initially signaled interest in regime replacement but now appears convinced that current conditions prevent such a drastic result.

Israeli experts concur that a restricted, non-comprehensive, and possibly short-duration military action would fail to dismantle the regime. Consequently, they expect Trump, if he greenlights an operation, to concentrate on tangible physical targets, such as nuclear sites and potentially ballistic missile infrastructure, priorities that align with Israel's long-standing security concerns in any strike scenario. Should the United States proceed with these objectives, assessments suggest Iran would likely respond by launching attacks toward Israel, dramatically intensifying the situation, as Jerusalem would then counter with significant force. (Read More)