More than a year after the pager attack, the Middle East's geopolitical map has been redrawn, leaving Iran in a precarious position as it grapples with internal crises and the potential for an overwhelming Israeli response to any provocation.
The geopolitical shifts that have occurred in the year and two months since the pager attack have redefined the balance of power in the Middle East. A senior official told Israel Hayom that Iran, Hezbollah, and likely the Houthis are not expected to directly respond to the assassination of Hezbollah Chief of Staff Haytham 'Ali Tabataba'i.
...Esmaeil Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, stated that Israel's behavior is worsening regional security and will result in serious consequences. Though Iran is working to rebuild its air defense capabilities – which were nearly destroyed in the war – and reportedly received aid from China, Israeli estimates suggest this will not significantly challenge Israel's absolute control of Iranian airspace.
...Iran's hesitation is driven by multiple factors : First, since Israel delivered severe blows to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran itself, another conflict of that magnitude is unacceptable. Second, the international environment, marked by full US support and partial European support for Israel, eliminates the possibility of helpful diplomatic maneuvers. Third, Iran is experiencing a particularly dire economic and infrastructural crisis, characterized by rampant inflation, currency collapse, a severe fuel shortage, frequent power outages, and a water crisis. In fact, the severity of the water crisis led President Masoud Pezeshkian to propose evacuating Tehran and relocating to a temporary capital.
...Tehran is currently in its sixth consecutive drought year and recorded its driest autumn of the century, reporting "zero drops of rain". After the first 55 days of the current water year, water reserves had hit a 60-year low.
...Contacted via social media, S., a Tehran resident, described having running water for only a few hours each day, dangerously poor water quality causing widespread diseases and infections, and mineral water sold at exorbitant prices in stores and markets. The resident added that while authorities have discussed bringing in water tankers from the north, no substantial action has been taken. (Read More)
