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Friday, October 3, 2025

Trump’s security guarantee to Qatar reshapes Gulf dynamics and alarms Israel

Analysis: Qatar won the first written US security guarantee after years of refusals, spurred by Israel’s strike in Doha and Trump’s pursuit of deals and diplomatic gains; move leaves Israel wary as Washington shields a state that still hosts Hamas leaders.

The White House announcement of a written U.S. security guarantee to Qatar is far more than a diplomatic gesture. It is, in practice, a protective umbrella Washington has extended to the Gulf emirate, pledging to come to its defense if attacked. For years, Qatari rulers have sought such an assurance from Washington, arguing that their support for American military and diplomatic initiatives in the region exposes them to threats. 

In return for hefty rental payments, Doha hosts Al-Udeid, the largest U.S. air base in the Middle East. Until now, however, presidents from both parties balked at providing a formal commitment, fearing similar demands from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. That caution stemmed from a consistent U.S. concern: that binding guarantees to Gulf partners could entangle Washington in regional conflicts with little to do with American strategic interests. 

The feud between Qatar and Saudi Arabia — which nearly escalated into open conflict about a decade ago — illustrated precisely the type of confrontation U.S. officials wanted to avoid.
Donald Trump had previously embodied that caution. When Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure was struck in 2019 by Iranian cruise missiles and drones, he declined to deploy U.S. troops or Patriot missile batteries to Riyadh’s defense, insisting instead that the Saudis pay for any such protection. (Ed note: Shakespeare, As Julius Caesar said, "Et tu, Brute?"  (Read More)