Hopes are lagging for a ceasefire in Israel’s conflict with Hamas in Gaza that would calm attacks by Hezbollah and other Iranian-allied militias. With the stalled talks in mind, American and European officials are delivering warnings to Hezbollah — which is far stronger than Hamas but seen as overconfident — about taking on the military might of Israel, current and former diplomats say.
They are warning that the group should not count on the United States or anyone else being able to hold off Israeli leaders if they decide to execute battle-ready plans for an offensive into Lebanon. And Hezbollah should not count on its fighters’ ability to handle whatever would come next.
On both sides of the Lebanese border, escalating strikes between Israel and Hezbollah, one of the region’s best-armed fighting forces, appeared at least to level off this past week. While daily strikes still pound the border area, the slight shift offered hope of easing immediate fears, which had prompted the US to send an amphibious assault ship with a Marine expeditionary force to join other warships in the area in hopes of deterring a wider conflict.
It’s not clear whether Israel or Hezbollah have decided to ratchet down attacks to avoid triggering an Israeli invasion into Lebanon, said Gerald Feierstein, a former senior US diplomat in the Middle East. Despite this past week’s plateauing of hostilities, “it certainly seems the Israelis are still… arranging themselves in the expectation that there will be some kind of conflict… an entirely different magnitude of conflict,” he said.
The message being delivered to Hezbollah is “don’t think that you’re as capable as you think you are,” he said. READ MORE
