This means that it’s worth understanding now how Hamas continues to have its hand on the trigger. For instance, if there is a ceasefire in Gaza, there may be “quiet” in northern Israel. What this means is that Hamas’s actions may determine Hezbollah’s actions. Together, their actions are likely coordinated with Iran and also Iran’s other proxies such as the Houthis.
This means the Gaza front is now linked directly to the northern front. Any escalation in Gaza may lead to escalation in the north. This is one of the main learning curves of this conflict and an eventuality for which Israel did not plan. What that means is that while Israel had planned for a multi-front war, Israel had not envisioned this war involving the Gaza front being the main front and Hezbollah being the stand-off front, where there is tit-for-tat rocket fire and airstrikes.
Although this is not a direct parallel, it’s worth considering how the current crisis has some commonalities with the First World War and the failed concepts that led Europe into a massive conflagration in 1914. Why is that similar to our region? Israel had a concept, and the concept envisioned Hezbollah as the main enemy and portrayed Hamas as the weaker player. However, it turns out now that it is Hamas that has dragged Israel into a long war in Gaza. Israel hasn’t even begun to face Hezbollah fully. Despite talk of a wider war with Hezbollah, it is unlikely a huge war will break out. However, as we all know, it’s best never to say “unlikely” because it may happen.
In addition, the First World War began unexpectedly. It began due to the assassination of an Austrian Archduke named Franze Ferdinand. He was killed in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, by a Serbian nationalist student named Gavrilo Princip. The assassination caused the Austro-Hungarian Empire to declare war on Serbia, which resulted in Russia backing Serbia. By August 1, Germany and Russia were at war. France and Russia were allies, so Germany’s war with Russia necessarily meant it had to fight a two-front war with France as well. Germany viewed France as the main challenge because Russia would be slow to mobilize. Thus, Germany attacked France first, even though the entire conflict had begun because of a dispute in the Balkans. READ MORE
