What now? The rhetoric of war or the path of regime change in Iran?

Recent events have irrevocably cemented the Islamic Republic of Iran’s image as an irrational actor on the world stage. Since the Islamic Revolt in 1979, the regime has consistently showcased its penchant for the theatrical, with its ruling mullahs reveling in public displays of mourning to assert their righteousness in a world they depict as unjust. This self-serving and delusional perspective has perpetuated a saga of human rights violations and state-sponsored terrorism for nearly half a century, underpinned by a disturbing reliance on terror.

October 7 marked a chilling reaffirmation of Tehran's approach when numerous global media outlets, which typically maintain a semblance of neutrality, lined up surprisingly in support of Tehran’s narratives. These outlets played down the Iranian regime's directive to its widespread network of terrorist proxy forces, which promptly mobilized under Ali Khamenei's orders. This mobilization followed closely on the heels of Khamenei’s threats against Israel just days before "Black Shabbat," after which he quickly retreated into a narrative of denial typical of the regime, suggesting a disinterest in war.

However, the situation escalated dramatically on April 14, when Iran, disregarding international calls for restraint, launched long-range missiles from its territory towards Israel. This marked a significant escalation in the Islamic Republic's pattern of issuing empty threats and engaging in acts of violence, a pattern that European and American powers initially failed to take seriously—thus underestimating Tehran’s penchant for creating crisis. READ MORE