Iran picks new supreme leader: The impact on Israel, nukes and all-out war - analysis

Iran’s Guardian Council’s decision this week to disqualify virtually all “pragmatists,” including former president Hassan Rouhani, from public office makes ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran’s proxies a virtual certainty, and war more likely than ever.

At stake on March 1 are both the parliamentary elections as well as elections for the 88-member, eight-year term Assembly of Experts.

This round of the Assembly of Experts is expected to select the next Supreme Leader, given that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is nearly 85 and has been sick repeatedly.

Who will be the next supreme leader?

From 1997-2005 and again from 2013-2021, Khamenei experimented with Iranian presidents who were reformists and pragmatists, Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani respectively.

Although Rouhani was still in power in 2020, by that time the US had pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, which was a signature policy of Rouhani’s, and Khamenei had already decided to cut anyone other than hardliners out of future power. READ MORE