Does Iran expect US retaliation for drone killing in Jordan? - analysis

US media is being very transparent in discussions about how the US might respond to the Iranian-backed militia attack that killed three Americans in Jordan. CNN reports that the US response is expected to be “powerful.” NBC reported that the White House has faced pressure to get “approval” from Congress on any retaliation. Iran’s regime is reading these articles and also wondering what might be in store for the perpetrators of the attack.

This is a crucial moment for the US administration. NBC reported that “House and Senate lawmakers will receive a number of classified briefings about the deadly attack this week. Biden's vow comes just days after a bipartisan group of senators sent a letter urging him to come to Congress before he undertakes any further military action.”

So far Iran seems confident it has gotten away with backing the groups that murdered the three Americans. An article at Fars News, repeated claims that the US was unlikely to target Iran itself. The article also used an image of US bodies returning via an airplane. The image is not from the recent killings in Jordan, it appears to show a dozen coffins draped with US flags. It is not clear when the image was taken. It is a clear message from Iran threatening the US.

The US announced the names of the three fallen service members yesterday; Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, 46, of Carrollton, Georgia.; Spc. Kennedy Ladon Sanders, 24, of Waycross, Georgia.; and Spc. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, 23, of Savannah, Georgia. The killing of the Americans took place in eastern Jordan near the Syrian and Iraqi borders. An Iranian-backed militia in Iraq took credit for a number of drone attacks in the area. The drones may have been flown from western Iraq or from Syria. 

Reports have also indicated the kamikaze drone was able to avoid air defenses by following a US drone. It is not clear if this report has been verified. The Iranians did something similar in an attack on Erbil in April 2021 when they flew a drone through a civilian flight path to attack a secret US hangar near the airport.

Iran’s calculations are based on years in which Iran has carried out attacks around the region and has never faced any retaliation. For instance in 2019 Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and there was no retaliation. Iran also shot down a US Global Hawk surveillance drone in 2019 and there was no retaliation. Iran also mined six ships off the coast of the UAE and in international shipping lanes and there was no retaliation. READ MORE