A longer Gaza conflict's implications for nuclear war with Iran

Introduction: In the closing days of 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu advised his nation that Operation Swords of Iron would take additional months to complete. During this period of extended Israeli involvement with counter-terrorism in Gaza and elsewhere, Iran can be expected to accelerate advances in its nuclear weapons program. Reciprocally, Israel will have to hasten its ongoing assessments of national survival options, both immediate and longer-term. These existential options include an eleventh-hour preemption against pertinent Iranian hard targets and more conspicuous plans for protracted nuclear deterrence. Regarding preemption, where this option is judged promising in operational terms, it could also represent "anticipatory self-defense" under international law. Regarding more conspicuous plans for nuclear deterrence, Israel will need (1) to shift from “deliberate nuclear ambiguity” to “selective nuclear disclosure;” and (2) to refine and make less opaque its generally presumed “Samson Option.” READ MORE