Iran has been dictating the tempo of the conflict against Israel for more than a year. It began in the fall of 2022 to heat up threats in the West Bank using Palestinian Islamic Jihad. After seeking to empower this proxy group and fill a vacuum left by the failure of the Palestinian Security forces in Jenin, Iran then turned its attention to other fronts.
Iran’s goal has been to “unify” the fronts or “arenas” against Israel. This means bringing together militias and proxies in numerous places; Gaza, the West Bank, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and other places. Iran has already been able to key most of these arenas into the conflict against Israel.
For instance, back in 2021, Iran already unveiled the growing threat that Iraqi militias might pose, using drones for instance, and it also empowered groups in Syria beyond Hezbollah. What that means is Iran sought to bring Palestinian threats into Lebanon to bolster Hezbollah and also provide Hezbollah with plausible deniability in attacks. Basically, when rockets were fired over Passover 2023, the narrative would be that “a Palestinian militant group fired rockets.”
Iran put its plan into action after October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel in an unprecedented surprise attack and massacre. Iran brought Hezbollah into the conflict and operationalized the Houthis. It already had the assets in these countries to go to “work” against Israel.
For instance, the Shahed kamikaze drones had already been seen in Yemen, according to a January 2021 article in Newsweek. Precision Guided Munitions were already being moved to Lebanon. “Killer drone” teams were already in Syria since 2018. Iran had already tried to move air defenses into Syria in 2018 in preparation for escalation. READ MORE