From the point of view of Iran, its proxies, and Hezbollah, this may present a window of opportunity to turn up the heat on Israel. This can be seen as an attempt to institutionalize the methods behind the maritime agreement last year, whereby Hezbollah and Lebanon’s government work together to create new claims against Israel and then “compromise” by receiving concessions from Israel, i.e., if Israel doesn’t give something away, Hezbollah threatens conflict.
But it is not always clear what Hezbollah is thinking. On the one hand, it wants to legitimize and institutionalize its actions. It doesn’t want to just be a shadowy terrorist army, but rather to openly establish “facts” on the ground – such as tents – and then claim victory for Lebanon’s diplomacy. It remains a terrorist force, and it openly boasts about its armaments.
An article on Beirut-based, pro-Iranian news site Al Mayadeen on Wednesday provides a bit of insight into some of Hezbollah’s mindset. The article analyzes the military capabilities of Israel and Hezbollah, going back 20 years.For Hezbollah, the anniversary of the “July war” in 2006 is important because it asserts that this is evidence it was able to withstand Israel’s blows. The article paints a picture of a Hezbollah that has vastly expanded its arsenal since then.
“Today, Israel seems distracted between an internal battle that threatens to split the army,” the article concludes, referring to threats by IDF reservists to withdraw from service if the judicial overhaul is approved. READ MORE
