No one knows for sure whether Israel would pull the trigger and strike Iran’s nuclear program preemptively if it felt time was about to run out on any chance of preventing the ayatollahs from achieving a deployable nuclear weapons capability.
But we can pretty much assume that Jerusalem will not take any major action as long as there is momentum between the West and the Islamic Republic for a potentially imminent deal.
It probably does not matter whether that deal would be a full return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal or to the “less for less” – partial freeze of nuclear violations for partial sanctions relief deal that has taken over the headlines since last week. Either of those options eliminates Israel’s argument to the world of there being an imminent threat, assuming there is no new clear and convincing evidence of such a threat. READ MORE