“The main... constraint that puts Iran several months away from having enough fissile material for one bomb... would last until 2031,” Malley said, responding to a question on PBS NewsHour as to whether the deal is worth returning to if restrictions on the manufacture of advanced centrifuges expires next year.
“The situation we’re in today, as a result of the decision [by the Trump administration] to withdraw from the deal, is Iran is only a handful of weeks away from having enough fissile material for a bomb. So again, we have to compare this to the reality we’re living today, if we could get a deal that would put Iran back several months away from being able to have enough fissile material for a bomb,” Malley emphasized.
This is not the first time the US and other parties to the negotiations with Iran have said that a return to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action could not keep the Islamic Republic a year away from breakout, though previous estimations had put it at half a year. Several months is likely fewer than six.
Iran built and installed hundreds of centrifuges this year that are so advanced they cannot be dismantled and sent to another country if a deal is reached, which reduces the time it would take to enrich enough fissile material for a bomb. That point, known as breakout time, does not include the additional time it takes to assemble a bomb, which is generally presumed to be short. READ MORE
