The rout of the Afghan forces will have grave consequences for the West

The defeat of the Afghan National Army at the hands of the Taliban has turned into a rout. After the loss of the two strategically crucial cities of Herat and Kandahar, the fall of Kabul is only a matter of time. This has been implicitly acknowledged by the British, who are sending 750 troops to guard the evacuation of the embassy, its staff and remaining civilians. A limited number of Afghans who have worked for the UK will also be airlifted out. Other Western governments are also speeding up their departure. Most Afghans, contemplating this undignified, if necessary, spectacle, will doubtless see their erstwhile allies as rats deserting a sinking ship.

After 20 years of counter-insurgency and nation-building, after vast expense of blood and treasure, the forces of Western civilisation are scuttling, leaving 38 million Afghans to their fate. We should be in no doubt about what that will mean. As soon as the Taliban occupy another region, those accused of “collaboration” with the West or with the “puppet” Afghan Government are summarily executed. Thousands will already be dead; many more will follow. Girls and women deemed suitable can expect to be forced into marriage to Taliban fighters; the rest will return to the helpless subordination they endured before 2001. For female Afghans, the prospect is of a life little better than slavery.

How did it come to this? The collapse of morale among the Afghan forces, despite superior numbers, training and equipment, is attributable above all to a lack of confidence in their officers and politicians. Under American leadership, these soldiers have fought bravely and well; without it, they fear that their commanders will take to the hills at the first whiff of grapeshot.

Many have compared the flight from Afghanistan to the end of the Vietnam War. It took a long time for the memory of that shameful episode to fade.
The Taliban have refused to negotiate with the Afghan Government, but they have struck deals with local governors, sparing their lives in return for swift surrender. Whether their word can be trusted is moot, but the crumbling administration has clearly decided that it has no choice. There may be a last stand at Kabul, which is now only about a hundred miles away from the advance guards of the Taliban. Holding the capital for a few weeks would buy enough time to complete the evacuation. But President Ghani is unlikely to fight to the death: he is bound to be conscious of the grisly end of his Soviet-backed predecessor Mohammad Najibullah, who was tortured, hanged and mutilated by the Taliban just quarter of a century ago. READ MORE