Friday, January 15, 2021

Ex-IDF intel expert: Iran retaliatory attack certain, unclear when, where

First of all, the Biden administration is coming in only one week. Everyone is talking about the likelihood of attacks from Iran even before then, but there was a recent INSS annual report that came out and said that the likelihood might even go up under the Biden administration, that there's an "open account" between Israel and Iran, between Iran and the United States, and maybe because the Biden administration might be a government with more restraint in general, that maybe Iran might see this as a green light to finally get revenge on Israel for various events that Israel might have been involved in over the last year related to certain top Iranian intelligence and other officials officials disappearing. Please, what do you think about that?

Well, as you said, we just published our annual strategic assessment for 2021 and the Iranian paragraph is titled something like "Iran is at a low point but still poses the main threat to Israel's security," and that's much broader than the current situation. As to your question, I think Iran, like all the key players in the Middle East, does not want large scale escalation. Iran suffered from a very difficult year from the sanctions, from the maximum pressure policy from the Trump administration, the huge number of deaths from COVID-19, and the year started with the killing of Soleimani, the commander of the Quds force and architect of the Iran regional policy and ended with the killing of Mohsen Fakrizadeh, who was in charge of the weapons group within the nuclear program. And it also had the attack on the advance centrifuge facility Natanz. All these - READ MORE