Tuesday, September 17, 2019

A Credibility Test for U.S.-Saudi Defense Relations and Iran Deterrence

The suspected missile attack is the most significant strike on Gulf energy targets in decades, and consequences need to be levied on Iran, whether in the military or diplomatic spheres.
The September 14 attack on Saudi targets in Abqaiq and Khurais—one of the world’s largest oil refinery complexes and the kingdom’s third-largest oil field, respectively—could take up to 5.7 million barrels per day off the global market for the next several months. This makes it the most comprehensive blow against the global energy sector since Iraq’s seizure of Kuwait in 1990 and the subsequent destruction of both countries’ energy infrastructures. Now, as then, U.S. and international commitment to the security of global energy supplies is being tested.

ANATOMY OF THE ATTACK

The strike was highly effective from a military perspective. The weapons hit at around 4 a.m. local time and appear to have struck from a northerly or northwesterly direction. This fits with a string of reporting that suggests related air defense alerts and engine sounds were concentrated in areas of the northern Persian Gulf, as opposed to an ingress route from Yemen. Strong U.S. government statements have ruled out Yemen (on September 14) and Iraq (on September 16), so the focus is narrowing to a direct strike originating from Iran.
These factors—plus the lack of attempted air defense interception by numerous overlapping Hawk and Patriot missile batteries—suggest a low-level cruise missile attack that hugged the ground at altitudes of under 300 feet. The footage seen thus far shows only one crashed missile, indicating that the arrival rate was very high, possibly even 95 percent, and that routes were carefully planned to avoid obstacles such as power lines and communication towers.
Seventeen individual impact points were struck at the Abqaiq facility, with a smaller number (perhaps as low as two) at Khurais. The weapons were highly accurate—for instance, all twelve of the thirty-meter-wide spheroid gas-oil separation tanks at Abqaiq were hit almost dead center. Much thinner stabilization towers were also accurately struck.
There are even indications of finesse in the strike’s “weaponeering,” the technical term for munition selection and modification. Some “aimpoints” were clearly hit with large explosive payloads consistent with an Iranian cruise missile such as the 700-kilometer-range Ya-Ali. Yet the gas-oil separation tanks appear to have been struck with high-velocity kinetic force sans explosions, perhaps signaling an effort to damage but not permanently destroy them. Similar finesse was visible in Iran’s May 12 attacks in the Fujairah anchorage off the United Arab Emirates, where four ships had their hulls expertly holed without causing the vessels to spill oil, sink, or suffer massive fires.
The full level of damage inflicted this Saturday is unknown so far, but considering the range of facilities struck and the long lead times for manufacturing such specialized equipment, the impact on Saudi oil processing capacity could extend into the four-, six-, or even twelve-month timeframe, forcing the kingdom to discontinue offering Arab Light and Arab Super Light grades. This extraordinary outcome would deeply shock oil markets and the Saudi leadership alike. And from a military perspective, no energy sector has been struck so effectively since the U.S. coalition’s precision bombing of Iraq in 1991.

SURMISING IRAN’S GOALS (Read more)